KARACHI: To appreciate Gwadar, it is important to understand the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean and the context of new routes that will be developed for the Kashgar-Gwadar Trade Corridor (KGTC), or China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as it is officially known, said Dr Azhar Ahmad, senior researcher at the Islamabad-based Centre for International Strategic Studies, at a seminar organised by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs on the ‘Upcoming KGTC — Implications and Opportunities for Pakistan’ on Friday.

Detailing the significance of the ocean, he quoted eminent geopolitical analyst Robert D Kaplan who said: “The Indian Ocean area will be the true nexus of world powers and conflict in the coming years. It is here that the fight for democracy, energy independence and religious freedom will be lost or won.”

The ocean has become very important because of concentration of resources especially in weaker states, according to the senior researcher. “The latest Yemen conflict has its genesis in the ocean. For instance, the location of Bab el-Mandeb [a strait between Yemen and Djibouti] and the Port of Aden [managed by Yemen Ports Authority] become important in this backdrop.”

He explained that most wars had been fought over resources. “Access to resources is not enough. Control of transportation routes such as ports and choke points [narrow passages through which ships must pass] is also important.” According to him, the conflict in Balochistan can be understood in similar context i.e. it is actually about access and control over resources.

Highlighting economic benefits to Gwadar under the KGTC, he said that since Gwadar was atop the northern Arabian Sea, it was critical in its connectivity to land and maritime routes as far as Central Asia that consisted of several landlocked countries with a total population of mere 65 million people but having poor infrastructure to develop its vast mineral resources. “Geographically Gwadar’s location is a feasible route for Central Asian countries that will immensely boost trade in the region.”

Dr Ahmad opined that the Xinjiang region in China with Balochistan in Pakistan had many similarities such as large territorial area, low population density, rich mineral resources, poor law and order situation and political unrest. He said that China was vigorously developing the region due to its robust economic policies but the Chinese government was facing a dilemma. “The transportation of raw material and export of manufactured goods from the region is a problem.” This was the reason why Gwadar had become important and needed to be seen in this context, he said, explaining that transportation of goods from Kashgar to Shanghai port and then to the worldwide routes onwards took a far longer time. But transporting it to Gwadar would tremendously cut down the duration and hence bring down costs, he said.

About planning and execution of Gwadar port and the KGTC, he said that there were a number of challenges, including lack of expertise, paucity of funds, lack of road infrastructure and security issues, which needed to be overcome.

Strong political will, he said, was vital to execute the project of this size and complexity. Overcoming bureaucratic delays and making efforts to gain the trust of the public were also necessary to make the KGTC a success, he said. “The government has not been successful in communicating its strategy and roadmap to the stakeholders and the general public.”

“Gwadar is not just another port. It has the potential to play a vital role in the development of the region, be an integral component of the global supply region. The potential is immense and opportunities are there. But opportunities don’t last forever for they always have an expiry date,” said Dr Ahmad in the concluding part of his speech.

Retired commodore Syed Obaidullah and retired vice admiral Iqbal Quadir also spoke at the seminar.

Published in Dawn, June 6th, 2015

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