PARIS: For years and years — a full decade, in fact — Rafael Nadal ruled the French Open the way no one had ever dominated any Grand Slam tournament, winning 66 of 67 matches and collecting nine championships, including the last five in a row.

This year, his far-poorer-than-usual results on red clay and acknowledged crisis of confidence are generating talk that his reign at Roland Garros might be about to end.

When the season’s second major tournament begins on Sunday, the lefty from Spain will not be the favourite, despite what he’s done in the past.

Instead, Novak Djokovic is considered the man to beat, as he bids to complete a career Grand Slam and extend a terrific season that includes the Australian Open title and a current 22-match winning streak.

There are other story lines to watch, as always. What is Roger Federer still capable of at age 33? Can Andy Murray stay unbeaten as a married man? Could Serena Williams become the third woman with 20 major titles? Could Maria Sharapova win a third French Open championship in four years?

Yet nothing should be as fascinating as following the paths of Nadal and Djokovic.

So far in 2015, Nadal is 17-5 on clay. Not terrible, but certainly not up to his usual standards. This is a guy who went 126-4 on the surface from 2006-10. He last lost more than three clay matches in a single season all the way back in 2003.

His heavy topspin forehand hasn’t been as reliable. He’s been less aggressive. There are other issues for Nadal, whose 14 Grand Slam titles are tied with Pete Sampras for second-most among men, behind Federer’s 17.

His only French Open loss came against Robin Soderling in the fourth round in 2009.Humility long has been a Nadal trademark, but he’s been unusually frank about feeling nervous and lacking self-belief.

Nadal will be seeded seventh, meaning a possible quarter-final clash with Djokovic, Murray or Federer, so if he is to notch up a 15th Grand Slam title it would arguably be his greatest achievement to date.

The big question on everyone’s lips is can he rediscover his mojo in the nick of time after a string of surprise losses.

In 2014, he arrived at Roland Garros with three losses on clay and appeared vulnerable to some, then began slowly. By the end of the 15-day tournament — surprise! — Nadal had collected yet another trophy.

If Nadal truly is different this time around, Djokovic seems best positioned to take advantage. In 10 previous appearances at Roland Garros, Djokovic exited six times against Nadal, including each of the past three years — twice in the final, once in a semi-final.

Victory would take Djokovic alongside Fred Perry, Don Budge, Rod Laver, Roy Emerson, Andre Agassi, Federer and Nadal as a winner of all four majors.

It would also take him halfway to a calendar Grand Slam, a challenge so daunting that only Budge (1938) and Laver (1962 and 1969) have managed to pull it off.

And there are others circling too.

Briton Murray, who learnt his craft on Spanish claycourts but had never won a title on the surface before back-to-back successes in Munich and Madrid this year, has thrust himself into contention.

Federer, for whom Nadal has been a recurring claycourt nightmare, will think a second French Open title is achievable, while Japan’s Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, Stanislas Wawrinka, David Ferrer and even home favourite Gael Monfils will have roles to play in what promises to be the most open men’s title chase for years.

Meanwhile, the two biggest names and highest earners in women’s sport will set off on another collision course with Sharapova having hit form at the perfect moment as she eyes a defence of her crown but old nemesis Serena lurks in the Parisian shadows.

Sharapova, who once despised claycourt tennis but transformed herself into the 2012 and 2014 champion, arrives in the French capital fresh from winning the Italian Open in Rome but Serena is a 19-time Grand Slam winner and at 33 is still the undisputed queen of tennis.

Should the seedings hold firm and the American plays the Russian in the final on June 6, however, past experience points to there being only one winner.

Serena has not lost to Sharapova since 2004 and leads their head-to-heads by an astounding 17-2, the last of these coming in the Australian Open final at the start of the year.

But there are players in the draw who could derail them.

Romania’s Simona Halep, last year’s runner-up, will be in the mix too while Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova has the power but not necessarily the craft to survive two weeks at Roland Garros.

Former world number one Victoria Azarenka, coming back to her best after injury, could be a dark horse as will Caroline Wozniacki who is enjoying a return to form that followed on from her run into the US Open final last September.

Published in Dawn, May 24th, 2015

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