The Karachi constituency of NA-246, where by-elections will be held today, is as sacred to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement as NA-204 (Larkana) is to the PPP.

This is where Altaf Hussain and his politics grew up. This is where the MQM headquarters are housed in Khurshid Memorial Hall named after the party chief’s mother. For the past 27 years, NA-246 (NA-187 prior to the 1998 population census) identified as Azizabad has remained at the centre of MQM politics. The party has remained practically unchallenged in NA-246 during the last seven elections. No wonder the MQM considers NA-246 its home.

The constituency extends on the two sides of Shahrah-i-Pakistan, an extension of Superhighway into District Central.

Read: Stage set for Karachiites to decide future political course

On the left side of the road are multistorey apartment complexes. Most of the constituents live behind these in houses built on 120 square- yard plots that extend up to the Lyari River.

It’s not easy to predict the outcome of today’s by-election.

To the right of Shahrah-i-Pakistan, plot sizes in Gulberg and Federal ‘B’ Area Block-6 vary between 400 to 1,200 square yards. Constituents here may donate generously but their turnout on election day is usually poor. Many plots along Shahrah-i-Pakistan have been commercialised over the years and now boast wedding halls, coaching centres, banks, CNG/petrol pumps etc.

Subjected to frequent shutdowns, the quality of life appears to be deteriorating especially for those living beyond the circular railway. Most constituents of Moosa Colony, F.C. Area and Liaquatabad are involved in small trade, crafts or menial labour.

According to DawnGIS (geographic information system), almost three-fourth of registered voters of NA-246 claim Urdu as their mother tongue. Non-Urdu speakers include Ismailis, Memons, Bohris, Punjabis and smaller groups of Sindhi, Pashto and Balochi speakers.

Ismailis live mostly in the apartment complexes of Hussainabad and Karimabad. Most Punjabi-speaking people live in pockets in F.C. Area, close to Gharibabad, Bhangoria Town, Gohrabad, and in katchi abadis along the Lyari River. Most non-Urdu speaking voters, and some Urdu-speaking young men and women, appear to have voted for the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf, though the party has yet to prove its clout in District Central.

Almost a decade of Gen Zia’s repressive military rule helped the MQM ride a wave of popular support in Sindh’s urban areas. It saw an impressive win during 1988, bagging 42pc of the registered votes against a 10pc vote for the combined opposition at NA-187.

Interestingly, it could only muster 26pc of votes in the 1990 polls. That year 72pc of registered voters refused to come out and vote for any political party. The MQM boycotted the next elections in October 1993. Many pundits said it did so at the behest of the establishment, paving the way for the PPP to form a government at the centre. The number of registered voters refusing to vote in 1993 rose to 91pc.

Once the MQM returned to the electoral foray during 1997 the percentage of registered voters staying home on polling day was 83pc — a drop of merely 8pc from the previous vote. The MQM candidate bagged 13pc of the registered votes.

After the 1998 census a large chunk of NA-187 was delimited as NA-246 which also inherited a small part of former NA-188. However, this had little effect on voting behaviour. During 2002, Haji Azizullah of the MQM bagged 20pc of the vote. The Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal walked away with 13pc, with the others going to the PPP etc. Yet the percentage staying away from the vote was 63.

No longer is poll rigging seen as the sole domain of the establishment. During the 1990s and 2000s, political parties and their militant wings have been accused of this as well.

Elections in Karachi in 2008 and 2013 have been especially marred by allegations of large-scale rigging. Nabeel Gabol, the MQM’s winning candidate from NA-246, resigned after only two years in parliament. He insists more than half his votes were fraudulently polled.

He bagged 38pc of the registered votes; yet 48pc of voters did not come to the polling stations. In 2013, the PTI bagged 9pc of registered votes in the constituency. The Jamaat-i-Islami boycotted the 2013 elections after three hours of polling, bagging a mere 3pc.

Only in the 2008 poll did the percentage of registered voters exceed that of those who didn’t show up at NA-246. The MQM bagged 60pc of the vote against a combined vote of the PPP and others at 2.5pc. If Mr Gabol is to be believed his 38pc vote in 2013 has become merely 19pc, which has been the average MQM bag except for 1988.

In 2013, ‘voter turnout’ at NA-246 out of 272 constituencies was at 166th position as opposed to 2008 when it was the constituency with the 10th highest ‘voter turnout’ in the country.

It is difficult to predict the results of today’s by-election. One wonders if the MQM has politicised or alienated the people on its home ground.

The writer is a former KMC administrator.

Published in Dawn, April 23rd, 2015

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