ARRIVING in Eng­land last week after spending the winter in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, I saw few signs of the general election due on May 7. The only indication of the approaching poll was a small placard informing residents of Devizes that Claire Perry, the Conservative MP and minister for transport, was in the field again in our constituency.

The main parties have not yet put up any billboards in London, probably because they are very expensive, and they would rather wait till the fag end of the campaign. In fact, if you didn’t know the date, the only way to find out that an election is around the corner is to dip into the media where the event is taken more seriously than people do in pubs and drawing rooms.

There is none of the drama and colour we associate with elections in Pakistan. No processions and no shamianas here. Actually, it’s all rather boring. Politicians trudge around the country, targeting marginal constituencies where a few hundred votes could change the balance.

But even though there is little excitement in the air, this is the most unpredictable British election in recent history. On April 10, the Guardian’s lead story focused on the major opinion polls that all indicated that Labour was finally pulling ahead of the Conservatives. But this does not tell the whole story. For the last couple of years, the two parties have been within a few points of each other, with small groups holding the balance of eventual power.

Against most expectations, the Tory-Lib Dem coalition has held together for the last five years. However, now pundits are expecting a far less stable power-sharing arrangement. The opinion polls are all predicting a split mandate, with several combinations possible for a coalition.

The House of Commons has 650 seats, so for a working majority, at least 326 are needed. The Conservatives won 302 in the 2010 election, and governed in coalition with the Liberal Democrats who had 56 seats. This time, however, the Conservative share is expected to drop to 281, while the Lib Dems will be lucky to win 28. Even if they were to combine their forces, they would be still short of an outright majority.

For Labour, the calculus is even trickier. Although they are expected to gain some twenty seats, taking them from 256 to 277, they would still need partners. Their biggest headache comes from Scotland, where the party was first formed. Here, the Scottish National Party is expected to win some 41 seats, up from only six in 2010. All these gains will be at Labour’s expense.

The reason for this dramatic rise in the SNP’s fortunes lies in the referendum for Scottish independence held last year. Although the SNP lost, the passions unleashed during the campaign have still not subsided, causing many Labour supporters to cross over to the SNP. Apart from its Scottish nationalist leaning, the SNP is far to Labour’s left, and its support in any post-election arrangement would come at a cost.

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and the first minister of Scotland, has said while her party would not enter a coalition with Labour, it would support a minority government on a vote-by-vote basis. Strongly against the austerity inflicted on the UK by the Tories these last five years, the SNP can be expected to oppose a continuation of this policy if Labour does form the next government.

Another major point of potential friction would be over Britain’s submarine-borne nuclear missiles that constitute the country’s main deterrent force. Based in Scotland, the Trident system has long been opposed by Scottish nationalists who object to the presence of nuclear missiles on their soil. One of SNP’s pledges in the referendum campaign was to evict the base at Clyde.

Now, the Tories have accused Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, of selling out Britain’s defence in a bid to curry favour with the SNP. Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, went as far as accusing Miliband of “stabbing the country in the back just as he stabbed his own brother in the back”. This is a reference to Ed Miliband’s challenge to his older brother David over the party leadership five years ago.

The other joker in the pack is Nigel Farage and his United Kingdom Independence Party which is poised to win around 15pc of the votes on May 7. Given the dispersed nature of Ukip support, this is expected to translate into only a couple of seats. Nevertheless, by attracting many disillusioned Tory supporters, the anti-immigrant party is expected to tip the balance to Labour in several marginal constituencies.

Ironically, the left wing Green Party is expected to do the same to Labour as it is currently polling at around 6pc. Again, it will be lucky to retain its solitary parliamentary seat, but it can still damage Labour in a few key areas.

Perhaps the biggest losers will be the Liberal Democrats. Five years as junior partners to the Conservatives have left the liberal, left-of-centre party’s reputation in tatters as the coalition government has slashed spending in the social sector. Although Nick Clegg, the party leader, claims he toned down many Tory policies, he is widely seen as having betrayed the party’s core values. Nevertheless, in a hung parliament, if the party manages to win the 28 seats predicted for it by pollsters, it might well be in a position to play king-maker.

Despite the unpredictable nature of the election, many are switched off: young people and ethnic minorities have all expressed their disenchantment with the whole process. They complain that politicians do not address their concerns, and many say they won’t bother to vote.

Published in Dawn, April 13th, 2015

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