In the old days, a bye-election in Azizabad — the heart, as it were, of the MQM’s power in Karachi — would have barely registered as a blip on the political landscape.

But much has changed since then; and the increasingly charged rhetoric around the bye-poll in NA-246 on April 23, occasioned by the intriguing resignation of Nabil Gabol from the seat he won in the 2013 elections, is indicative of that.

For one, the last general election saw the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf arrive as the new player in town challenging the MQM’s virtually uncontested writ in Pakistan’s financial jugular since several decades, aside from the two army-led operations against it in the ‘90s.

Meanwhile the changing demographics of Karachi were already a source of concern to the party, which essentially draws its strength from the politics of ethnicity.

Then, a slew of multi-pronged, MQM-specific actions of late under the rubric of restoring law and order in the city, including the raid on Nine Zero — the party headquarters in Azizabad — and Saulat Mirza’s death row confession accusing some of its top leaders of complicity in murder, has made the last few weeks particularly torrid for the party.

From a virtually unassailable position in Karachi that by extension gave it a significant role on the national stage, the MQM is currently on the defensive.

Recent developments have brought its siege mentality to the fore, one that it has assiduously cultivated in tandem with its strong-arm approach. If not carefully managed with maturity and foresight by the political parties concerned, the situation can easily strain the fragile equilibrium in the city to breaking point.

The campaign for the upcoming bye-election can well be seen as a test case in this respect. It is an opportunity for the MQM, which has been sending representatives to the assemblies since 1988 and has its finger on the pulse of Karachi, to demonstrate it is also capable of issue-based politics and that its support in the city is based on more than coercive tactics as alleged.

For its part, the PTI can use the campaign to illustrate its understanding of the dynamics that underlie this complex city. Judging by the rhetoric on display, however, it appears that both Imran Khan and Altaf Hussain are loath to rise above the same old histrionics and personal attacks that have marked their style of politics thus far.

There is undoubtedly a crisis of governance in Pakistan’s largest metropolis. And that is what the PTI must build its campaign for the bye-election upon, rather than Imran Khan assuming a patronising ‘saviour’ mantle.

Such a stance could even backfire; there are enough questions hanging over the chastening of the MQM — its timing as well as the ill-conceived, highly questionable tactics employed — to give pause to the public whose vote Imran is courting.

Published in Dawn, March 31st, 2015

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