When they want to add to the number and impact of terrorist attacks, terrorists start hitting soft targets. Attacks on hard or relatively secure targets require more time to plan and execute, and the chances of success remain low.

The recent spike in sectarian-related terrorist attacks in Pakistan reflects growing frustration among terrorists, apparently due to an intensifying military campaign and a consolidating political and social response against them.

Out of frustration, they keep going for soft targets, a trend that could continue in the coming weeks and months.

Also, these attacks indicate that it is not only the traditional sectarian militants who are engaged in sectarian violence in the country – many of the recently reported sectarian-related terrorist attacks were claimed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its splinter groups.

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Over the past decade, sectarian violence in Pakistan has followed certain patterns of rise and fall.

The year 2014 had witnessed a visible downward turn in sectarian-related terrorist attacks, but that declining trend could not sustain for long.

The geographical flashpoints of sectarian violence have also kept shifting, with a few regions – such as Karachi and Quetta – becoming permanent hotspots of such violence. After 9/11, a major respite was observed in the attacks.

But after the military operations in Swat and South Waziristan in 2009-10, the violence saw an upward trend.

Critical considerations

There are two major factors of sectarian violence (which complement each other) that should not go ignored.

First: sectarian terrorist groups are still active in Pakistan and many of them have developed a nexus with other terrorist groups.

Second: the discourse of faith-based hatred in the country has become increasingly sectarian over the years.

Another challenge is linked to the growing geographical spread of the attacks/clashes. Once confined to a few regions, incidents of sectarian violence were reported from about 30 districts and regions across Pakistan in 2014.

Perpetrators continue expanding their outreach and as a result, sectarian and communal violence has also increased in interior Sindh in the recent months and years.

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Similarly, the twin cities of Rawalpindi-Islamabad have been in the grip of sectarian violence since 2013, when a Sunni-Shia sectarian clash occurred during the Ashura procession. As many as 11 sectarian-related attacks were reported from the twin cities in 2014 alone, with TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Sipah-e-Muhammad being the major actors behind it. This indicates increasing vulnerability of the major urban areas of Punjab and the federal capital.

While the major frustration among terrorists is connected to the military operations in North Waziristan and Khyber agencies of Fata, small-scale search operations in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces are also shrinking operational spaces for terrorists.

The way forward

As far as the effectiveness of the state responses is concerned, certain gaps in these responses still exist.

Despite the government’s repeated bans on sectarian militant groups, they are becoming more active and defiant across country.

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Sectarian-related terrorism in Pakistan is an urban phenomenon.

A well-equipped police with new technologies and resources is vital to counter this challenge. At the same time, utilising the resources available and allocated for the force is another critical issue.

The operational and technical assistance and capacity-building of police is an important area that needs immediate focus. The training programs need to be focused on technology-led policing along with focusing on management, intelligence gathering, mobility and connectivity.

The police could evolve a systematic scrutiny on a street-by-street level in particular and vulnerable localities. Stationed in particular localities, police are in a far better position than military or paramilitary forces to develop an understanding of local communities, identify stakeholders, conduct effective investigations and build responses.

Most importantly, the state needs to develop zero tolerance for violent sectarian groups and their leaders.