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ONLY when you are an observer of Pakistani politics and policies can you oscillate from utter despair to regaining some of your optimism and back again within the space of a week.
Yes, the attack on a Shia mosque in Peshawar by terrorists has pushed into background a faint glimmer of hope that was evidenced earlier in the week and even as the seven-day period was drawing to a close.
Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan, with the election to office of President Ashraf Ghani, a clean, clear-cut man of merit to replace the master of double-speak Hamid Karzai whose family reportedly amassed a fortune during his decade-plus in power, have been like a breath of fresh air.
Of course, Hamid Karzai was no more than half the problem. Even if, as the Pakistani security establishment would have us believe, he was being instigated by India to lash out against Islamabad, he was often reacting to the disastrous policy pursued by GHQ-ISI to try and convert a sovereign western neighbour into a compliant satellite by the use of proxies.
Wherever Pakistan seeks extraordinary influence in the region, it would be foolish to assume India will remain a silent bystander and it hasn’t. Add to this Iran’s fears and aspirations towards Afghanistan and the recipe for a heady mess seemed ready. This, even when the interests and concerns of bigger powers such as the US, China and Russia have not been taken into account.
The Peshawar mosque attack has pushed into the background the faint hope evidenced earlier in the week.
The fallout is for all to see. The architects of the policy, which involved fanning flames in Afghanistan, are now wholly preoccupied by trying to rather belatedly firewall Pakistan itself from this raging toxic, ideological storm. And, on any given day, a series of firefighting efforts are seen across the length and breadth of the country.
While it is too soon to reach definitive conclusions, one would be inclined to stick one’s neck out and say the situation at least in terms of ties with the western neighbour is improving slowly as Karzai’s exit from the scene in Kabul was accompanied by a change of guard in Rawalpindi too with some signs of change in policy, attitudes emerging.
The Nawaz Sharif-led civilian set-up has often spoken of its desire to have amiable relations with all neighbours and the new military leadership has not undermined the government at least where Afghanistan is concerned. With multiple visits by civilian and significantly different tiers of military and intelligence top guns, bonhomie can be sensed for the first time in many years.
Where the arrival of the first batch of Afghan National Army cadets to train alongside their Pakistani counterparts at the military academy in Kakul, Abbottabad, was a discernible sign of the new beginning, the briefing by the army’s chief spokesman on Thursday was further evidence.
Maj-Gen Asim Bajwa, while briefing the media on the progress of the investigation into the Army Public School massacre detailed those arrested/killed so far. These included several suspects captured by the Afghan forces on their soil “on the basis of intelligence provided by us”, he said, adding: We are “very grateful” to the Afghan forces for their cooperation.
Such cooperation and assistance and the publicly expressed gratitude for it would have been a peacenik’s dream even a year ago but now seems to be something that observers expect more routinely.
If the forces of the two countries work in tandem to deal with the terrorists and their safe havens in their so-called lawless common border areas, it would be safe to assume that the terror networks will be considerably hamstrung in what they can achieve.
Of course, there is no point in letting one’s imagination run wild. All positive signs notwithstanding, there are still many unresolved issues the main one being the future of the Taliban led by Mullah Omar. For long the group has been rightly seen as enjoying Pakistan’s support. In this ‘new look’ military policy, it is far from clear where the group and its future will be found. Till this is clear all other positive signs may not amount to much in the long run.
Talking of positive signs, perhaps the most significant was the Pakistan Foreign Office rejoinder to a statement issued by the Saudi embassy in Islamabad in which it had sought to clarify that the Saudi government was ‘not funding’ extremism in Pakistan.
Where the statement had restricted itself to Saudi ‘government’ funding alone and said every penny that was given was routed through the host government, the Foreign Office responded that this wasn’t the case with ‘private charities’ etc. These have often been blamed for channelling funds to those aligned with Saudi ideology.
Whether this would lead to a serious dialogue between the two sides is another matter. However, that Pakistan was, for once, concerned and bold enough to publicly express disquiet at sources of extremist funding traced to the Kingdom was either a slip-up for which heads would roll or a very welcome development coming not a day too early. Wish I could say which with certainty.
As I get to the final para of this column the news from Peshawar is not good at all. Another week, another carnage. The size of the challenge remains formidable. How formidable? A friend has just shared the top lines of a survey done by Gallup Pakistan. It says 87pc of Pakistanis believe that minorities (not clear whether this includes Muslim minority sects) in Pakistan enjoy freedom of speech and equal rights; only 8pc disagree.
Need I say more?
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn February 14th , 2015
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