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The writer is a member of staff.
PARLIAMENT saved democracy. No, the opposition saved democracy. No, the government saved its own skin. No, the script writers balked. No, Qadri and Imran failed.
Everyone’s got a theory. But few want to state the obvious. There is one — and only — reason we still have an elected government and parliament: Raheel Sharif didn’t want to take over.
The general’s Kayani moment came on Aug 30. Mayhem had broken out. The government had lost all control. TV screens were filled with smoke. Constitution Avenue was burning.
Imran may be the greatest gift the PML-N has ever received — once it became clear Raheel wasn’t going to take over.
If he had wanted to, on that one night, on Aug 30, Raheel could have become the fifth dictator in the long and ignominious history of this country. Raheel chose not to. And all the squabbling and yammering and arrest-warranting in the world will not change that fact.
There is a corollary: these decisions — like the one not to take over — are not revisited every few weeks or even months. Barring something catastrophic or staggeringly unexpected, Raheel’s decision is done.
That fact and corollary also present opportunities for others. For the PML-N, it knows a military takeover isn’t on the cards. Which, if you’re the PML-N, ie petty and personal, means you can sock it to the enemy.
So now we’re stuck with this awfulness of the anti-terror persecution of Imran and his buddies. There is nothing — nothing in the world — terroristic about what happened on Constitution Avenue on Aug 30.
Crimes were committed. Parliament was nearly desecrated. The law was broken. But they were political crimes and every single one of those crimes could be investigated and prosecuted without recourse to special investigators or special laws.
So what is the PML-N up to? Why this, why now? In a word, or two rather: Nov 30. They don’t want a massive crowd in Islamabad, like Imran has pulled in elsewhere.
A big crowd in Isloo would not be the end of this government. A big crowd in Isloo would not reignite Imran’s fading challenge. But a big crowd would irritate the N-League. And that, quite depressingly, is why we are here: national politics reduced to what pisses off a federal government.
On to some of the stuff the government should be doing. The N-League is on a PR blitz. Things are happening on the energy front. Affordable electricity will be ours by the time the next election rolls around. Load-shedding will be manageable. Pakistan will be bright again.
But the PML-N has got nothing — nothing close to what they claim anyway. Three countries Nawaz has been to in recent days. And the most amusing — you gotta laugh because the alternative is, well, so much darker — of stories are circulating in Isloo.
All those energy deals? So desperate is the N-League to get things signed that it’s taken to trying to cart Pakistanis abroad to sign local deals in third countries. Y’know, for optics — cause it looks bad if the PM is running around trying to drum up investment abroad and nothing real gets signed.
And all those important meetings abroad with high-profile hosts and serious agendas? Amusingly, some very relevant Isloo-based folk didn’t even bother to make the trip — so pointless, photo-op-ed and last minute were the trips.
Essentially, Nawaz can force his A-team to go along because, well, he’s the boss — the other side of the table though doesn’t have to take any of it seriously.
The truly depressing thing about electricity is not the scale of the problem — but just how seriously the government had taken it, and still achieved nothing.
Remember that long ago time, the halcyon days of the PML-N’s third term, when the honeymoon was still on, the distant summer and autumn of 2013?
Remember how Nawaz didn’t do anything but work on energy, holed up in day-long meetings with his energy advisers?
Remember how Nawaz got that May 2013 was essentially a referendum on electricity — the reason the PPP got walloped and the electorate chose the safe, competent hands of the PML-N over the mercurial, untested hands of the PTI?
Well, many have forgotten. And the PML-N would prefer it stayed that way. Because the longer this silliness of — and now with — the PTI continues, a dirty little secret will remain unspoken, unheard and unrecognised: the PML-N was out of its depth, not up to the task of fixing Pakistan, long before Imran turned up the heat.
The N-League had no plan when it took office. After a bit, a very short bit, it became apparent it didn’t have the capacity to develop a plan. A bit after that, it became apparent that it didn’t have the will to develop a plan. And a little bit after that, it became apparent that it didn’t have the urgency to find the will to develop the capacity to have a plan.
Imran has made everyone forget that. Imran changed the topic. Imran made it about silly stuff rather than the deep, structural and continuing problems of the state and the PML-N’s inability to fix any of it.
Imran may be the greatest gift the PML-N has ever received — once it became clear Raheel wasn’t going to take over.
No investment? Blame Imran. No electricity? Blame the dharna. No capital metro bus? Blame Imran. No policy? Blame the dharna. No vital appointments? Blame Imran.
Had Imran not happened, folk would have started to figure out the PML-N doesn’t know how to fix Pakistan or doesn’t want to. And re-election would have been in jeopardy.
So the longer this drags out, the more you have to wonder: does the PML-N really want Imran to go away?
Because if Imran goes away, there’ll be no one left to blame.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2014
Comments (30) Closed
This article makes perfect sense to me. The question is, does PMLN or PTI know it? I dont think so.
Excellent article until the laughable conclusion. One, government takes Imran as a very serious threat, as it should. Second, people of Pakistan are not fools. When the previous government blamed it's non-performance on an obstructionist Supreme Court (which actually was a stronger defense than blame-everything-on-Imran is for this government), did the people forgive it? No, the PPP got booted out. The PML-N knows it. So does Imran.
Permit me to disagree with the last part of the article. Sans Imran, this nation would be in deep slumber till and even after the next GE, rather than thinking and knowing that PMLN has no plan, no capacity to develop a plan, no will to delay the capacity to develop a plan, and no urgency to find the will to develop the capacity to have a plan.
The folks know the PMLN would not deliver ever. They know it will be thrown out like PPP next time. The worry is the damage they can cause before that happens.
In India elections are run on BSP (Bijlee, Sadak, Paani i.e. Electricity, Roads and Water). Looks like Pakistan is catching up fast.
Excellent analysis as always
I don't completely agree with this. We have been electing terrible leaders and we will keep electing them for pathetic reasons.
Pakistani politics is not based on reasoning or logic, it's more on personal gains and emotions. If Imran hadn't happened, then PML-N govt would have sucked..but people would have forgotten it by the next election anyways. So it doesn't really make a difference.
I dis agree as it was high time some one like Imran had to let the CAT out on the issue of rigging and the involvement of Ch Iftikhar and Mr Ramday on the issue of rigging.
Started off very well and I agree most of it except Cyril argues that had IK not been here, folks would have started realizing that PMLn has no plan or capacity to deliver. To me this is flawed, unprecedented in Pakistan. The electoral losing is not a criteria of it and has never been in Pakistan. Round robin is policy with the beauty of having only 2 candidates...
Good opening of the article, well built argument but flawed conclusion.
Agreed with the first part, that the COAS don't want to take over even after Parliament help, Govt defensive mode when mobs attacked, Hashmi Leaks, Imran Qadri failing, Script writer(s) back off/retirement
But rest of the Article is rubbish, nonsense, Govt did nothing? hello, check around you, Loadshedding decreased, terrorism decreased, economic indicators are going up, stock exchange going up, economic deals etc. It will take years to complete big projects not days. You can compare the Govt performance after 5 years and with the past Govt, not with your desires.
You may be a critic but it doesn't mean you have to talk negative and lie around in some big newspaper just because you are a critic!
Even though I am (was?) a big fan of the writer, He can be such a let down at times. Gimmickry of words totally lacking in substance.
"National politics is reduced to what pisses of the federal government". HAHAHAHAHAAH good one! Well, yes Imran might be the Plan B for every plan that goes flop for PMLN but this is not the 90s. People are much mature now. They have understood that blatant reality which Imran Khan pointed a few days ago at Rahimyar Khan jalsa "Poor man had just one authority; his vote. Even that has been snatched from him now.
Dont agree with pmln s part. No one is that stupid to come out with no plan. U just used blames of team,, n seconds but no reference of who did what for whom. No arguments on facts n figures. Just uttering bad words against others makes some one cool n u did the same. Against govt again pti. N u r done
One may not completely agree to writer's opinion. the writer is right in his observation that Nawaz government is unwilling and incompetent to solve our problems.But to blame it on Imran khan may be unjustified. Perhaps Imran, in opposition, is the worst nightmare for them. Suppose a situation when Imran was silent then who would have been raising voice for common people. we have witnessed the pathetic attitude of other parliamentarians when they gathered in Isloo during dharnas. Rather, it is Imran who is challenging the status quo.
@Q. Khatana :
Well Mariam Nawaz was embarrassed like a little girl caught with her hand in the cookie jar. Papa will be so disappointed! This ungrateful nation. Nawaz must be thinking here I am the PM for the third time, and so what if my little girl was holding that position for which she is fully qualified. And so what if my son in London, owns property worth over a few million. We were worth so much more, only if Musharraf had not spoiled our fun. After all we were voted in office. Ask Najam Sethi. He will tell you it was fair and square. And this Imran fella. God. Zardari's so much better.
Cyril, you said it all by the end of the second paragraph........and then you went on say so, so ,so much more.....brilliant.
It Imran Khan who actually made Cyril to write this article as it the darna that exposed PMLN's incompetency. Cyril is spining the narrative.
All this is based on the assumption that Pakistani people would realise all this. The sad reality is that they won't. There is no way that PPP government would've lasted five years if the public actually saw all that Cyril says they should. They need someone to interpret the data. They want someone to lead them. And that has come in the form of Imran Khan.
I disagree with the point that "Had Imran not happened, folk would have started to figure out the PML-N doesn't know how to fix Pakistan or doesn't want to. And re-election would have been in jeopardy". The ppp government was no better yet it still completed its full tenure.
The article is based on the hypothesis that the folks are idiots or dumbs still thinking that N-League has the solutions but PTI did not let them implement.
Your understanding of Pakistani politics is very deep and ability to analyze situations is profound.... Please consider studying Indian political scenario as well.. we would love to read same.......
Very naive analysis indeed. It is interesting to note that even some educated people in Pakistan fail to understand the gravity of situation and try to belittle what Imran is trying to do single handed. PMLN and PPP under Zardari are not any political forces with intellectual thinking and nation building plans but a group of people who came in politics to make money. They will do whatever they can to maintain this status quo irrespective of the fact whether they have any support of people. This no democracy at all
Sometimes it makes you wonder what keeps Imran going.
@Aamna H. Fasihi A poor man will give his authority to even a street dog for a plate of biryani. That is the reality.
This article is very true to reality but it does not talk about the fact that PML N's strongest machine is Propaganda (after corruption and personal business growth) they have been governing Pakistan and especially Punjab for decades now and yet without delivering few piddly infrastructure items they have a significant population convinced enough to vote them.
"No investment? Blame Imran. No electricity? Blame the dharna. No capital metro bus? Blame Imran. No policy? Blame the dharna. No vital appointments? Blame Imran."
But Mr. Cyril... do you think that the common man is buying PML-Ns excuses. Judging from the size of PTI's gathering all over the country, and the composition of these gathering... I don't think anyone is buying anything coming from PML-N.
In my view, this is a VERY stupid article.
Badly written, poorly researched. PMLN power projects mostly depend on old, expensive coal power projects, which will increase the cost of per unit generation threefold. The right kind of Research has not been done here... Plus PMLN legitimacy is being undermined all over the world due to the length and intensity of these protests.. causing ex-patriots and foreigners / foreign Govts to question PMLN's stability... its causing diplomatic and commercial drawbacks for the PMLN abroad and creating deep cracks within its own ranks.
You may agree or disagree with Imran Khan's agitation against the Government - Whether he should have stayed in the Assemblies and agitated or out on the Roads - But one thing which I felt has changed for the better is the fact that the people have become much more aware of their rights - And whichever Government will be in Power from now on will have to ensure Policies which directly help the Poor - Issues previously never discussed Seriously - Clean Drinking Water - Education - Health & Better Rates for Farmers - Otherwise they will be ousted like the PPP! And Imran alone deserves the credit for such Awareness!
great article but i would disagree with you on the view that PMLN is going to fail. in my opinion they will find something to sell just like last election they did on 2013 by urgently completing Metro and extensively advertising. unfortunately our nation tends to appraise physical development rather institutional development. one more thing that this dharna came to early for PNLN. it will give time to PMLN to do something about next election just like they did last term. My point is PMLN will come up with something to sell in next election as they have got time and resources for it.