ISLAMABAD: International response to Islamic State’s (IS)territorial design may lead to its fall in the medium term.

This was stated by Dr Franck Mermier, French scholar and expert on Middle East while talking to Dawn at a policy debate at Jinnah Institute here on Wednesday.

The French scholar while describing IS and Al-Qaeda said: “Al-Qaeda is now controlling some parts of Yemen but in the Arab World it seems to be losing its hold but in its place the IS is gaining ground,” he said and added but it could not succeed as regional and international forces have woken up to its design.

The visiting expert said: “We should also look into the fact that in Iraq and Syria armed groups are opposing the IS.”

Earlier, speaking at the policy debate, the French expert said that proxy wars being waged in Syria and Yemen had obfuscated geo-strategic clarity over the recent past, and have resulted in shifting alliances between regional powers.

The visiting scholar also said that sectarian faultlines had emerged stronger and the political system holding sway through the Arab world had given way.

He spoke at length about the phenomenon of IS and how it had attracted large support from militant outfits across the world, including Pakistan, where factions of the TTP have declared allegiance to IS leader, Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi.

“War economy at work in Iraq, which allows IS to compensate its fighting force monetarily far more than other militant groups; one reason why there have been significant defections within the Middle East, he said.

But the IS phenomenon draws in greater part from Sunni marginalization in Iraq, which occurred during the Maliki government.

He explained that IS made alliances with tribes sympathetic to Al-Qaeda and found recruits from the Baathist party cadres.

Author and columnist Zahid Hussain stated that the wars waged by America in the region had had an immeasurable impact on political sentiment throughout the Arab world.

In Iraq, the much acclaimed Sunni uprising of yesteryears which thwarted Al-Qaeda’s insurgency, now provides support to IS.

He said that the Arab Spring initially assisted the cause of Islamist parties, but there had been reversals to this in Egypt and elsewhere, which made it unclear how political Islam would be allowed to proceed in Arab countries.

He also pointed to the emerging competition between IS and Al-Qaeda for militant space, where the latter suffered from an unclear agenda. IS has not only won territory, but has articulated an aggressive global vision, which has clear appeal in Pakistan.

Talking to Dawn, he said that currently IS is more lethal than Al-Qaida. “IS is much more organized than Al-Qadea and it has a clear agenda of installing Islamic government. Its leadership is centralized and they have also powerful agenda machinery,” he said.

Former ambassador Ashraf J. Qazi observed that the rise of IS will not contribute to welfare within Arab societies, given its tendency to “pronounce anathema by takfir” over communities.

Ambassador Aziz Ahmad Khan, ambassador Sarwar Naqvi, defence expert Shahzad Chaudhry, Lt. Gen. Talat Masood and others also spoke on the occasion.

Published in Dawn, October 16th, 2014