AS floods, by and large, clear Punjab to enter Sindh, the debate starts on the extent of damage it wreaked on the crops and livestock in the province. As usual, the officials are conservative in their estimates. Farmers, understandably, are liberal. The truth may be somewhere between both the guesstimates.

The river flows have just cleared the southern part of Punjab and entered Sindh, where its furry might be much less for two reasons: breaches upstream and squeezed flows of the Indus. Punjab has made three breaches upstream to reduce the flood furry; it reduced river flow from over 700,0000 cusecs to 450,000 cusecs as it left the province. With huge Indus bed, this quantity of water may not cause much trouble for Sindh. But still it might invade crops in Kacha areas and beyond.

Secondly, because of massive water generated by three rivers – Jehlum, Chenab and Ravi – the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) had cut Indus outflows by almost half. Thus it would not reinforce the floods as was the case in Punjab.

The National Disaster Management Authority had projected damage to over 1.5m acres of crop. Out of them, 1m acres came from the rice zone and central Punjab districts

But in Punjab, where its fury peaked, the final damages are now a matter of debate. The National Disaster Management Authority had projected damage to over 1.5m acres of crop. Out of them, 1m acres came from the rice zone and the central Punjab districts. Logically, the rest 500,000 acres should now belong to cotton belt, where breaches were also made and water allowed to spread far and beyond.

Beyond these official estimates, one of the farmers body — Pakistan Muthida Kissan Muhaz, — in its releases to the media has estimated that 3.7m acres came under some kind of impact. According to it, out of 5.8m cotton acres, 1.6m (or 23pc) got affected to varying degrees. Out of 4.7m rice acreage, 27pc (1.4m acres) were affected. Out of 1.7m acres of sugarcane, 450,000 acres, or 23 per cent, got some kind of hit. If these figures are taken as correct, the farmers’ financial loss on account of these crops could surge to Rs100bn, according to one guesstimate.

The officials, however, contest such figures, especially those of the cotton zone. Though final figures are still being compiled by the Revenue Department at district level through a tedious and lengthy process, cotton should not be affected but on just over 300,000 acres, for two reasons. It was River Chenab that mainly spelt disaster this year.

There are very few farmers along its banks that risk cotton sowing because of Chenab’s regular overflows. Its average flow ranges between 300,000 and 400,000 cusecs during the flood season and it routinely inundates adjoining areas. It is River Satluj that runs through the cotton zone and has crop even on its bed. Chenab touched the crop only in two districts, or where it joined Jehlum and Ravi and breaches were made. Thus damage to cotton should remain minimal. But still, it should around 300,000 acres. Some of the farmers, however, put it over 400,000 acres.

For cotton losses, the farmers think more than floods, it is falling prices of the crop, which has been substantially lower than the grower’s stated cost of production that would hit the final yield data. In those acres, where floods hit the crop, the farmers may have no choice but to terminate the crop and go for wheat sowing now. They may not have time to let it grow afresh even if some strength is left in the crop because it would take another 45 days for bolls and lint formation, and make delayed wheat cultivation nonviable.

The government would announce some sort of compensation package, as it did in 2010, and farmers would go for wheat. In other areas, where hot and severe humid conditions would persist because of flooding in adjoining areas and Met forecasts, farmers might not have much incentive and money to further invest in the crop. Thus, the provincial target of 10m bales seems to be far from the mark at this point of time.

The Punjab agricultural bureaucracy, however, is equally worried about citrus and mango crops as well. It recently issued advisory for both of them, along with rice and cotton. The citrus crop is at the fruiting stage in the province, where such conditions can cause canker, root rot, dieback and scab. It advisory pleads for trees’ treatment on war footing. Floods hit the zone after torrential rains. The fruit earns substantial foreign exchange.

Similarly, Chenab waters have hit mango orchards in Multan, Khanewal, Muzaffargarh, Rahim Yar Khan and Bhawalpur districts and increased the risk of dieback, gomosis, anthranose, root rot and sudden death of trees. Prolonged stay of water in these orchards can be a threat to the crop.

So, both these fruits along with cotton, sugarcane and rice crops are now giving sleepless nights to the agriculture officials and more so to the farmers — the direct sufferers.

With Punjab suffering hugely, one hopes that crops in Sindh escape a major impact as projected by water planners, to keep national production figures, by and large, intact.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business, September 22nd, 2014