These are large numbers to begin with, but even larger if you consider the context. To date, almost a million internally displaced persons (IDP) from North Waziristan Agency (NWA) have registered with the government. The IDP statistics are shocking because they are almost twice the estimated population of the affected area.

In its latest update, the Fata Disaster Management Authority (FDMA) has reported registering 981,104 persons (84,781 families) since the beginning of the Armed Forces’ latest operation in NWA. These numbers seem inflated, to say the least. NWA’s population in the last Census in 1998 was recorded at 361,246 persons. With the annual population growth rate of 2.46 per cent, the estimated population 16 years later cannot exceed 533,000 persons.

The government rightly estimated 600,000 IDPs before the launch of the operation. Documented IDPs are 84 per cent more than the estimated population of the NWA. This has surprised even the ISPR’s spokesperson, Maj. Gen. Bajwa.

Several important questions arise from this situation. First, who are these IDPs and where are they originating from?

Second, are the local authorities involved in systematic inflation of the numbers to attract more assistance?

Third, are the IDPs from places other than the NWA?

Fourth, and more importantly, after the conflict has subsided, should we seek their repatriation to NWA, which is devoid of an economic base, or plan to settle the IDPs in ‘settled’ areas to engage a large population in more productive and conflict-free livelihoods.

The IDP crisis in Pakistan presents an opportunity. Since most IDPs originate from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), which has been slow in urbanising, it is possible to build new cities to settle the IDPs in settled parts of KP to jumpstart the economic recovery with a construction boom. These new cities could be purpose built with new industry and service clusters to help boost the economic base of KP.

The plan requires the IDP numbers to be as large as reported by the FDMA. One wonders if IDPs have been counted multiple times in the process. FDMA reports 254,141 males, 281,829 females and another 445,134 children whose gender, it appears, was not recorded.

These numbers are troubling from a demographic point of view. NWA, as per the 1998 Census, is known to have a sex ratio of 114 males for every 100 females. The IDP numbers are suggesting a male-to-female ratio of 90. This is a huge discrepancy.

Even if these gender differences in the IDP population are true, they lead to further concerns. It is known that the conservative households in Fata underreport their female members in Census, resulting in a higher male-to-female ratio. Given that many adult males have out-migrated for other Pakistani cities or to the Middle East from Fata, the male-to-female ratio is expected to be less than 100, as is suggested by the IDP statistics.

This, however, raises another troubling prospect. Assuming that the IDP stats are correct, it could also be true that adult males have left to join the Taliban and have dispatched minors, women, and seniors to the relief camps. Note the unusually large and troubling number of registered children (445,134). However, Fata is known to have an average household sizes of 9.5. The average household size of the IDPs, including children is 11, which is not terribly higher than what was expected.

Equally important, and even larger, is the earlier cohort of IDPs whose number, as per UNHCR in Pakistan on December 31, 2013, exceeded 161,000 families. With 9.5 persons per household, the IDPs could have easily exceeded 1.5 million. They have mostly resided off camps in host communities. Only 5 per cent of the IDPs in December 2013 were placed in camps. The rest were living in host communities in Peshawar (44 per cent), DI Khan (16 per cent), Kohat (13 per cent) and elsewhere in KP.

From Bannu: Writing the saddest lines...

The planning agencies in KP have been working on the idea to build several new planned cities. These cities, under normal circumstances, would have attracted residents from other settled parts of the province, including cities, such as Peshawar and Kohat. The reality remains that with the exception of Peshawar, there is no other urban centre in KP. The chance to build proper cities that could develop a modern economic base around industry and services is very important.

Pakistani IDPs sit with their registration cards as they wait to receive relief handouts from a storage tent of the World Food Programme (WFP) at a distribution point for internally displaced persons (IDP) in Bannu. -Photo by Reuters

Places like NWA are devoid of genuine and productive economic activity. The result is underemployment of a large number of individuals who are condemned to inadequate livelihoods. So poor is the economic base that the 1998 Census does not even report estimates of employed labour force or unemployment rate for Fata. In such circumstances, where is the wisdom in sending the IDPs back to economically-deprived tribal lands.

Some would argue that the IDPs come from tribal cultures and that they will never leave their ancestral homes. That is true for most, but not for all residents of Fata. In fact, 35 per cent of Fata residents would relocate, if provided with an opportunity.

A comprehensive and scientific survey of Fata residents, sponsored by the British High Commission in Islamabad, revealed that a large number of those living in conflict-affected areas of Fata would migrate to other parts in pursuit of better livelihoods.

IDP = Internally Disowned Pakistanis

For decades, Pakistanis have been fed misinformation about the tribal Pakhtuns. The image projected was that of barbarous tribes who abhor education and enlightenment. However, the tribals have similar, if not the same, aspirations for their future and that of their children.

The same survey revealed that 62 per cent of the respondents wanted better education for their children. Another 20 per cent wanted better employment opportunities, and 8 per cent wanted more security for their children. How can one fault the tribal Pakhtuns for wanting the same we want for our children?

Source: http://www.understandingfata.org/uf-volume-v/Understanding_FATA_Vol-V-11.pdf (Page 5)

Is it difficult to build new cities from scratch?

Not really, ask China. In fact, China may have overdone it as she has built so many new cities that some are sparsely populated, thus earning the moniker, ghost cities.

Still, the Chinese have the expertise to build cities for the future urban middle class in China that could domestically sustain the Chinese economy. Chinese partners could be involved in planning new cities in KP that could serve as host communities for IDPs and others who would prefer urban living.

The IDP numbers will raise several questions about their authenticity.

Assuming that these numbers are correct, then we are presented with an opportunity to raise the future middle class for KP in an urban setting.

It is still not too late to start thinking about turning a crisis into opportunity.