ISLAMABAD/NEW DELHI: An invitation by India’s premier-elect Narendra Modi to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his oath-taking ceremony on May 26 has served to highlight the uneasy relations between the two countries as it has set off speculation over whether or not it will be accepted.

Prime Minister Sharif is among the leaders of member states of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) invited by Mr Modi. It is the first time in Indian history that leaders from neighbouring countries have been invited to the swearing-in ceremony of a prime minister.

Foreign Office spokesperson Tasneem Aslam confirmed the receipt of the invitation, but declined to say anything about the government’s response.

“Leaders of all Saarc member states have been invited and this includes Pakistan,” Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said earlier in Delhi.

Diplomatic sources said a decision would be taken by the prime minister after consultations with “stakeholders”.

Meanwhile, the Indians are hoping to get a reply in a couple of days.

Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives confirmed their participation in the ceremony.

Mr Sharif had phoned Mr Modi soon after the announcement of the results of the Indian elections last Friday to congratulate him on his “impressive victory” and also invited him to visit Pakistan.

The prime minister was criticised by certain quarters for allegedly having shown haste in inviting Mr Modi, who is known as a hardline Hindu leader.

Renewed skirmishes along the Line of Control in Kashmir over the past couple of weeks and other recent incidents showed that ties between the two neighbours, who have a history of hostility, were still dysfunctional.

A peace dialogue between the two countries has been suspended since hostilities along the LoC began in January last year.

Additionally, diplomatic analysts say a return visit by an Indian prime minister to Pakistan is overdue.

Outgoing prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh did not accept an invitation for the visit. There was an attempt to get him to visit Pakistan towards the end of his tenure, but that too could not happen, although both former prime minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani and former president Asif Ali Zardari had visited India.

But still some in the government see the invitation as an “opportunity” for moving towards normalisation, which the prime minister should seize upon.

The Indian spokesman did not agree with a perception that the invitation was the start of better relations with Pakistan.

“Let’s take one step at a time. At this stage the invitations have gone. Let’s take responses on this and we will take it from there rather than jump to conclusions on the basis of our first step. This is the first step we have taken to invite leaders of all Saarc member states, that includes Pakistan,” he said.

Sources at the Pakistan High Commission in India, which has been engaging with the newly elected Bharatiya Janata Party team members, said its representatives had been asked to go to the Indian foreign ministry, probably to receive the invitation.

To go or not to go

There was no certainty that Mr Sharif would attend, although chances are that his own instinct would be to go to Delhi.

One reason for the invite, which both leaders have given to each other, with Mr Sharif taking the initiative, is business.

It has been heard in recent days that the Reliance group’s founder Dhirubhai Ambani had lobbied through powerful intermediaries with former military ruler Pervez Musharraf against the harsh treatment of Mr Sharif after his government was toppled in a coup.

At the heart of the Reliance interest is the Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat, which could do with guarantees of protection from Pakistan in the event of hostilities, as well as some hydrocarbons business.

The Americans have also expressed a desire for the new Indian government to engage with Pakistan. Their mutually destructive nuclear capabilities and an equally trustworthy ability to help stabilise Afghanistan jointly, are among the foremost reasons that Pakistan and India are being nudged to come together by everyone, China included.

However, if Mr Modi’s advisers turn out to be who they claim they are then the invitation to the Saarc nations, including Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka, too is rooted in a lurking fear of encirclement by China.

The BJP has indicated that Mr Modi will work towards a re-crafted foreign policy. He repeatedly tore into the Congress-led government’s foreign policy in his election speeches, terming it “stagnated” and “weak”.

It is claimed that Mr Modi’s huge victory in the general elections gives him the political capital that his predecessor, Mr Singh, did not have.

But this could be an exaggeration as Mr Singh was able to negotiate, in his own low-key but purposeful way, a stable relationship with Pakistan despite the Mumbai attacks. And one of his bold initiatives was the Sharm el Shaikh agreement with the Pakistani prime minister. The move was stymied by the entrenched systems on both sides.

After his own election last year, Mr Sharif’s administration had also suggested that the Indian prime minister be invited to attend his inauguration ceremony, but Dr Singh had declined to do so.

On Wednesday, Omar Abdullah, the Chief Minister of India-held Jammu and Kashmir, tweeted: “Excellent move by @narendramodi to invite SAARC leaders, especially Pak PM for his swearing in. Hope this is beginning of sustained talks (sic).”

Minutes later, he again posted: “At the same time I can’t help wonder what BJP would have said if a PM designate Rahul Gandhi had done the same thing.”

Published in Dawn, May 22nd, 2014