Though the wheat crop has by and large escaped leaf (yellow) and stripe (brown) rust attack so far, but at one stage in mid-February it had threatened to inflict substantial loss on the crop.

Had the muggy conditions, preceding current rain spell in Punjab, arrived some three weeks ago, the attack, as estimated by the experts, could have taken down productivity by 10-15pc. Even now, the damage would range 1-2pc.

Over the last few years, the rust attack has become a regular annual feature, inflicting varying losses on the crop — depending on seed variety, weather conditions and ecological zones. So far, the bordering districts of central and upper Punjab have proven more prone to it. In Narowal and Sialkot, the conditions have deteriorated this year and individual losses may be much steeper than impact on national yield.

Though losses from the attack so far have remained manageable, planners in Punjab are sanguine for future on three accounts. First, almost all leading crop varieties have become susceptible to both kinds of rust attacks and occasionally suffer losses in varying degrees. This includes the variety that covers almost 40 per cent of the area to the one that is spread on 10 per cent of total area Second, loss of even up to five per cent can be significant on the natural seed.

The national consumption ranges between 22 to 23 million tonnes against production that hovers around 24 million tonnes. With a production plus of one to two million tonnes, even minor loss can make difference between wheat exporting and importing. Third, there is an increasing impact making of climate change. It is putting pressure on seeds and crops like never before. With crop spread in all ecological zones, with varying temperatures and rainfall, the susceptibility of seed only gets magnified with slightest change in climate and becomes additional source of worry.

For these reasons, the wheat experts have started pleading for an elaborate seed replacement programme, both at national and provincial level. Quoting two recent examples, where such a replacement paid off hugely, they advocate that it may be time for the repeat of the effort. In 2008-09, the Punjab had launched Wheat Productivity Enhancement Programme, under which it distributed seed for thousands of acre. It quickly got multiplied and a particular variety, which now covers almost 40 per cent of the sown area, emerged the winner. It was because of this reason, the province harvested bumper crop next year.

Then, after the 2010 floods, Punjab again distributed better seed among affected farmers. The seed, though was not of any particular or better performing variety as such, but largely came from the progressive growers and performed well. Both these factors have lifted the provincial average production over 30 maunds per acre in the last few years.

Now these varieties are running out of strength and need to be revisited. During the last one decade or so, Pakistan’s wheat seed policy has been more the merrier. All provincial and federal attention was riveted to introducing new varieties. It is because of this reason, there are almost 44 varieties doing rounds in the market. Some of them do not cover even one per cent area, but they are still there. Out of them, around 15 were introduced in the last five years — at an average speed of three varieties a year.

How a particular variety would respond to rust attack, no one knew for sure. What were inherent strengths and weaknesses, nothing was documented. How would they perform in different ecological zones in the province or the country could only be guessed. All experimentation, which should have been done before the formal release of a variety, was carried out in the field, where they are now failing.

It is time to review varieties on the basis of their performance data in the field and emerging weather realities.

Seed development and replacement is a time taking business, spreading over years if not decades. Once that process hastens, the seed replacement would become correspondingly difficult. At present, there are varieties that cover up to five to eight million acres and replacing them would be a gigantic task. The sooner government realises it, the better it would be.