Emerging capital spending trends

Published March 3, 2014
- Illustration by Abro
- Illustration by Abro

Last Thursday, Meezan Bank announced that it was in discussion with HSBC Bank Middle East for possible acquisition of the bank’s Pakistan operations. Earlier on February 12, MCB Bank declared that it had entered into an agreement with majority shareholders to acquire a 55pc interest in the Shariah-compliant Burj Bank.

Nasim Beg, director at Arif Habib Limited, explained that the tremendous growth in Islamic banking had encouraged conventional banks to either add a Shariah-compliant banking arm or acquire a running Islamic bank.

But it is not just banks. Corporations sitting on mountains of cash are opening up their coffers for capital spending. Pakistani entrepreneurs are even venturing beyond national borders.

People in the knowledge of things confide that Fatima Fertiliser is to set up a urea manufacturing unit as ‘Mid-West Fertiliser’ in the US state of Indiana. Murree Brewery is looking for a partner to brew beer in India. Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim is preparing to sell meat to consumers in the Middle East.

Lucky Cement is in a tie-up with African conglomerate ‘Rawji’ to set up a plant in Congo. And a local poultry company has set up a halal processing facility in the US.

Many other entrepreneurs have vertically expanded, mainly in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. But there are some reports that away from home, businesses have suffered losses. While some, like those who went to Sri Lanka, suffered only moderately, others — mainly textile companies — that entered Bangladesh have emerged badly bruised after grim reminders of events in 1971 stirred unsavory sentiments for the former West Pakistan there.

But industrialists’ confidence in the country is visibly on the rise. “They have started to take a long-term view of the country as a good investment destination,” says Mohammed Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities.

Corporates are quick to seize any opportunity that presents itself. ICI Pakistan is making its first foray into the food business by participating in the import and distribution in Pakistan of Morinaga, a Japanese company that makes a range of infant formula and nutrition products.

And aliens, mainly China, are also eyeing the Pakistani market. “During President Mamnoon Hussain’s recent visit to that country, Chinese financial institutions committed an investment of $30bn for the next seven years in the form of loans and equity,” reminds Arif Habib.

The former KSE chairman sees vast potential in untapped or little explored sectors like agriculture, small- and medium-sized enterprises, livestock, fisheries, alternative energy and mainly coal-fired power projects.

Analysts point to several encouraging indicators, all of which bring out a ‘shinning Pakistan’ image ahead.

According to State Bank of Pakistan figures, private sector credit stood at Rs3.2 trillion at the end of last December, which was Rs296.2 billion higher than the corresponding figure at the beginning of fiscal year 2013-14. It translated into an increase of 9.9pc during the first six months of the current fiscal year.

“This is the fastest pace of growth recorded in the last eight years. Led by the textile sector, it signifies a surge of 19.4pc in private sector credit in just six months,” says an economist.

Other than that, the consumer price index for February 2014 is expected to be at 8.36pc. This, coupled with banking spreads below 6pc for the first time in eight years, is encouraging corporations to believe that the SBP would maintain the discount rate at 10pc in its next month’s monetary policy statement; to the benefit of leveraged companies.

Spinning mills have also come back to life as demand for yarn received a boost over the last three years, mainly from China, US and Europe. The GSP Plus status is the icing on the cake.

On a cumulative basis, textile exports stood at $8.06bn in 7MFY14, against $7.47bn in the same period last year, representing a growth of 8pcYoY. Large-scale manufacturing growth accelerated by 6.76pc in 6MFY14 as per numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Recently released financial results of several sectors reveal an encouraging improvement. The country’s cement sector posted 19pc growth in profit for 1HFY14 to Rs18.7bn. The Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association released auto numbers which show that overall industry sales volumes went up 9pcYoY and 57pcMoM in January 2014 to 13,910 units. “This is the best start to a year after four years,” a sector analyst noted.

Majyd Aziz, former president of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, spoke about the rejuvenation of industrialists’ interest in investment. His reasons included a firm control over currency, growth in textiles after GSP Plus, improvement in power supply situation and the government’s serious endeavour to improve the security situation.

“The clouds of gloom and doom over the economy seen about eight months ago have begun to dissipate,” he said, and expressed enthusiasm for the future, with just one caveat. “The upcoming federal budget, which everyone expects to be visionary, has the potential to make or break industrialists’ hope for the future.”

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