DESPITE both sides occasionally trying to project the relationship as more than the sum of its parts, Pak-US ties in 2014 and beyond are almost certain to be shaped by events in Afghanistan. Of course, for Pakistan at least, the importance of what happens next in Afghanistan extends far beyond its implications for the relationship and perhaps even holds the key to the stability of Pakistan itself. So while talk about security assistance and energy cooperation between the US and Pakistan are important, the focus must be elsewhere: on “advancing regional peace and stability” as the relevant section of the ministerial joint statement read.

In that section, there is reference to a “peaceful, stable, independent and united Afghanistan” (independent seems to be a new addition to the ever-flexible definition of the desired end-state in Afghanistan); “a policy of non-interference in Afghanistan, including by all countries of the region”; “Afghan-led peace and reconciliation”; “Pakistan’s important role in supporting Afghan-led reconciliation”; “improved border control”; and to “call on the Taliban to join the political process and enter into dialogue with the Afghan government”. For good measure, there is reference to “the potential for enhanced stability and prosperity from improved bilateral relations between Pakistan and India. Reading between those lines a familiar bottom line emerges: the US and Pakistan talk a good talk, but little concrete is achieved when it comes to ensuring a stable Afghanistan post-2014. With all eyes on the upcoming Afghan presidential elections and the mercurial President Hamid Karzai appearing more determined than ever to keep everyone guessing about what he’ll do next, there’s no certainty about what the Afghan government will look like in a few months’ time.

Still, there is some good news: ostensibly at least, the US and Pakistan have been able to find some common ground when it comes to agreeing that every option should be explored to prevent Afghanistan plunging into turmoil in the immediate years ahead. Both the US and Pakistan stand to lose if Afghanistan descends into chaos. For Pakistan, there is the added burden of knowing that it cannot physically insulate itself from an unstable Afghanistan the way a superpower located several continents away can. But knowledge of what an unravelling Afghanistan could spell for both sides does not mean the US and Pakistan will jointly do what it will take to avoid the worst-case outcome. Both the US and Pakistan have legitimate security interests at stake — keeping each other engaged and working quietly but persistently (as reflected in the resumption of the strategic dialogue) could help yield a mutually beneficial outcome instead of a mutually disastrous one.