Madagascar awaits mediation to end crisis

NAIROBI: Two presidents, a rising death toll, an island the size of France divided in two — after six months of crisis, Madagascar seems no closer to a solution and analysts say foreign intervention may now be the only option.

Since disputed elections in December, the giant island off southeast Africa has been split between two rival leaders, who are unable to agree on who won the presidency.

On one side, Marc Ravalomanana, a charismatic tycoon, has captured the imagination of millions with his rags to riches history and promises of an end to the corruption and poverty that have dogged Madagascar for generations.

On the other, veteran leader Didier Ratsiraka, the former Marxist “red admiral” whose 23 years in power have guaranteed him a loyal power base which will not concede defeat to his younger rival.

At talks in Dakar last month, a solution seemed within reach when the two men agreed to a recount of December’s polls. But when Ravalomanana emerged the victor days later, Ratsiraka went back on his word and Madagascar was back to square one. In the past week, violence has escalated as Ravalomanana’s forces have launched an offensive against provinces still under Ratsiraka’s control.

Analysts say the bloodshed will get worse if an end to the conflict is not negotiated soon. Virtually all agree that Ravalomanana is gaining ground, albeit slowly, and will eventually come out on top.

Ratsiraka, they say, must be convinced by the international community to step down.

FRANCE, OAU COULD INTERVENE: The international community has been largely non-committal over the crisis in Madagascar. Despite the fact that Ratsiraka reneged on the Dakar agreement, no one has condemned him, nor recognized Ravalomanana as legitimate president.

The Organization of African Unity (OAU) has suggested a summit and African heads of state have called the two rivals to a meeting in Senegal on Saturday. But even if they go, analysts say, there is little negotiations could achieve.

ECONOMY BATTERED: The need for a solution in Madagascar is daily more pressing. Economically the political crisis has been a disaster. The World Bank estimates that at least $600 million has been lost to date, and predicts that GDP, originally forecast at six per cent, will tumble to minus 10.—Reuters