The Chinese dream

Published November 9, 2013

COMPARISONS are unfair. And comparing China, Asia’s most exciting rising power, to an almost-failing, chaotic state like Pakistan is especially unfair.

It’s like comparing chalk and cheese, apples and pears. China fascinates, intrigues and inspires. It also provokes fear and unease, with friends and foes alike worried about its future intentions and trajectory. Beijing’s every move, every pronouncement makes global headlines.

So do Pakistan’s — but mostly for the wrong reasons. Whether it is embarrassing infighting over Malala or mourning the death of terrorist leaders, news coverage of Pakistan is most cringe-inducing, not inspiring. If China is really Pakistan’s ‘all-weather friend’ as propagandists in Islamabad claim, isn’t it time that Pakistan stopped obsessing over the US and looked at Beijing for a few important lessons on leadership, fighting poverty and ensuring growth and development?

Yes, of course, how can one forget? Pakistan is a ‘democracy’ while China is ruled by the Communist Party. The last time I looked, however, Pakistan’s elected leaders were mostly uninspiring, dynastic and rather chunky men who bickered and argued endlessly over the ‘heroism’ of the Taliban, drone attacks and whether or not to make peace with terrorists.

China’s unelected president and prime minister, meanwhile, are evoking the ‘Chinese dream’ to invigorate an already hardworking nation to do more and better. China is surging ahead with GDP growth rates which are the envy of the Western world while Pakistan is struggling to make ends meet.

Certainly not everything is perfect in China. Far from it. Ethnic minorities in the country are restless and unhappy as evidenced by the recent deadly assault in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square by an alleged ethnic Uighur from the country’s far western region of Xinjiang. Tibet simmers with resentment. Dissidents want more political freedom while activists of all kinds want cleaner air, safer food and less damage to their environment.

And yet, Pakistan’s ‘best friend’ is courted and respected by the world while Islamabad squirms under an increasingly critical and hostile global spotlight. All eyes will be even more fixated on China over the next three days as the country’s new leadership holds a key meeting from Nov 9-12 to decide new economic reform measures.

Chinese state media say the meeting of the so-called third plenum will likely be a “watershed”‘ for economic reform, reflecting the new leadership’s momentum, sense of urgency and collective understanding of the need to embark on big, bold and broad reforms to gain public support before it’s too late.

The four-day session of the full 376-strong Communist Party central committee traditionally sets the economic tone for the government’s five-year term.

According to Xinhua press agency, the plenum “is expected to be a watershed as drastic economic policies will be unveiled”. Fingers crossed. Certainly, the third plenum provides an opportunity for the announcement of significant reforms. It is usually held about a year into the term of China’s new president and premier, so they have secured their positions sufficiently to unveil their plans for their decade in power.

This plenum will likely draw on a ‘383 plan’, circulated by Chinese government think tanks, which aims to transform the Chinese economy by 2020. The 383 blueprint involves firstly a trio of reforms to open up the market, transform government, and reform enterprises to boost innovation.

Eight further key areas to tackle include: cutting administrative approvals, promoting competition, land reform, opening up banking including the liberalisation of interest rates and the exchange rate, reforming the fiscal system including setting up basic social security, reforming state-owned enterprises, promoting innovation including green technology and opening up the services sector.

There are suggestions for a change in the hukou or household registration system which would allow migrants from rural to urban areas to fully participate in the economy. Comparisons are being made to the 1978 plenum when China embarked on a landmark reform drive that has seen it transformed over the past 35 years from a communist-style command economy into a key driver of global growth, trade and investment.

Not all the ambitions will be met of course. China faces enormous challenges as it seeks to rebalance the economy by switching from an export-focused economy to one that encourages domestic consumption.

Labour costs are rising and productivity is low. China’s leaders know that they must reform state-owned enterprises which have entrenched themselves in significant sectors of the economy, such as banking and telecommunications.

A greater opening of China’s financial markets is likely to happen, but how much and how far remains to be seen. There are also numerous concerns such as the amount of debt in China’s economy, corruption and reforming the rule of law, all of which need attention.

Many argue that even if the top leadership is determined to pursue bold market reform, vested special interest groups are too powerful to contain and may act as a brake on change.

In addition, the 25-member politburo may have difficulty reaching consensus on new policy initiatives and priorities, thus inhibiting effective policy implementation. It is also worth noting that over the last year, media censorship has tightened and public intellectuals at China’s universities, think tanks and other institutions have been instructed to avoid speaking about sensitive issues such as universal values, freedom of the press, civil society, and citizens’ rights. A crackdown continues on dissidents.

These concerns are genuine but what is not in doubt is that China — already the world’s second largest economy — is going to continue to grow, impress and inspire over the coming years. There is a lesson here for Pakistan and its confused, uneasy leaders.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels.

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