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KARACHI: With what is being billed as a show of strength in the country’s commercial centre, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf has staked its claim for a place in the violence-wracked city’s political arena.
Still unable to attract Pakistan People’s Party heavyweights from Sindh, the PTI has yet to prove it can, when push comes to shove, translate its popularity into electoral success in the province.
Not many people remember that in May this year PTI chief Imran Khan had led a two-day sit-in in Karachi near the Native Jetty bridge in protest against the US drone attacks, but at that time public participation had not been as much as it was on Sunday.
It is a widely held view that the participation of people in large numbers in the public meeting must have set alarm bells ringing in other parties in the city, particularly the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, whose voters might be attracted by a new entrant like the PTI in Karachi politics.
However, background interviews with certain political players indicated that the Sunday show of strength became possible only after a tacit understanding between the PTI and the MQM and the latter would have been given prior assurances that Mr Khan or any other leader of his party would neither say uncharitable things about Altaf Hussain nor would they challenge the electoral dominance of the MQM.
Mr Khan had phoned the MQM chief in March this year to praise his stance on national issues. Similarly, Mr Hussain became the first political leader to congratulate Mr Khan and PTI leadership for the success of their public meeting in Karachi on Sunday.
The MQM believes that Mr Khan cannot dent its vote bank, which largely comprises Urdu-speaking people in Karachi and Hyderabad, but he is capable of snatching the support or votes of the Pakhtun people from the Awami National Party (ANP) and some religious parties.
While the Pakistan People’s Party appears relaxed and unthreatened by the PTI show in Karachi, certain press statements issued by the ANP provincial leadership in which they spoke against the “agents of establishment” showed that the ANP was worried about its political future in the metropolis.
There are 20 national assembly and 42 provincial assembly seats in Karachi. At present, the MQM dominates Karachi politics with 17 national assembly seats.
The remaining three seats were bagged by the PPP in the 2008 general election. Similarly of the 42 provincial assembly seats in Karachi, the MQM got 34, the PPP got six and the ANP, for the very first time, secured two seats.
One of the important stakeholders in the city, the Jamaat-i-Islami, had boycotted the 2008 general election. But it had contested the 2002 general election from the platform of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, a six-party alliance, which won not only five national assembly seats but also six provincial assembly seats in Karachi.
The total number of votes the MMA had bagged while contesting the election on the 20 national assembly seats in Karachi was 484,098.
The importance of the JI factor in city politics could be gauged from the fact that the Jamiat Ulema Islam, a component of the MMA, had contested the 2008 general elections from the platform of the MMA on 10 national assembly seats in Karachi, but failed to get success or even considerable votes.
It had bagged a total of 21,481 votes, as the loyal voters of the JI did not cast their votes. However, one of the reasons behind this dismal performance was a last-minute seat adjustment with the MQM on certain national assembly constituencies.
The ANP fielded candidates on six national assembly seats in the 2008 general election and lost. The party bagged merely 38,957 votes on these seats.
It had entered into a seat adjustment agreement with the PPP, which supported the ANP on certain provincial assembly seats, and as a result, two of its 14 candidates contesting election on as many provincial assembly seats had emerged victorious. In all, over 67,000 votes were secured by the ANP on the 14 provincial assembly seats.
The PTI had also boycotted the 2008 general election. It had contested the 2002 general election and fielded candidates on 14, out of 20, national assembly seats in Karachi, and lost. The poor performance could be gauged from the total number of votes (26,560) it secured in the 14 national assembly constituencies.
While nine years have passed since the 2002 general election and the efforts of Imran Khan have turned his party into a force to be reckoned with, the MQM, the PPP and the JI still dominate the Karachi political scene and it remains a distant dream for the PTI to get electoral success on its own.
An electoral alliance between the PTI and the JI could not only jeopardise the MQM dominance in the city but could also challenge the PPP in certain constituencies.
Although the JI is in favour of an alliance with the PTI, at present Mr Khan appears unwilling because he thinks the liberal segment of his party would distance itself from him in case of an alliance with a rightwing party like the JI.
