ON consecutive days, Irfan Husain and this column have taken up a critical issue which for reasons of expediency has been ignored by all governments since the 1960s.

Now, an event which leads to or is immediately responsible for causing a result is known as its ‘proximate cause’, in contradistinction to a higher-level ‘ultimate cause’ recognised as the ‘real’ reason something has occurred. For example: why did the building collapse? Proximate cause: because the foundations slipped sideways. Ultimate cause: because the adjacent plot was deeply excavated without shoring/supporting the earth around its foundations.

Generally, an ultimate cause may itself be a proximate cause for a second ultimate cause. In the above example: why was the adjacent plot deeply excavated without shoring/supporting the earth around its foundations? Proximate cause: because construction regulations were violated. Ultimate cause: because the government is corrupt and is making money on illegal and dangerous structures by looking the other way.

The foremost ultimate cause of the chaos we face in Pakistan today: overpopulation.

In 1947, the population of Pakistan (the west wing) was 31 million; in 64 years this has ballooned to 186 million, and is expected to further escalate to 266 million by 2030. In 1947, the respective populations of UK, France, Germany, Japan and South Korea were 49, 41, 68, 78 and 20 million; today they are 62, 63, 82, 127 and 49 million. In 2030, they are projected to be 68, 66, 78, 117 and 49 million.

Exploding population is the root cause of Pakistan’s dilemmas. The countries mentioned, the industrialised nations we admire and attempt to emulate, have controlled fertility and consequently provide acceptable standards of living for their citizens.

Our population bomb puts an unbelievable strain on an economy, government and infrastructure that is already struggling.

The situation is akin to cramming 100 persons into a house meant for a family of six: the frictions and bickering that emerge, the arguments over space and possessions, the deterioration in cleanliness and sanitation, the exhaustion of food and domestic resources and so forth.

In 1970, the populations of West Pakistan and then East Pakistan were 62 (47 per cent) and 70 million (53 per cent). The Awami League in East Pakistan won 160 (53.3 per cent) of the 300 National Assembly seats in that year’s election and, under the ‘udher tum, idher hum’ policy of West Pakistanis, later seceded to establish Bangladesh, which has subsequently done better at curtailing fertility. One must wonder whether the reversed population percentages of today could have prevented the split.

Michael Kugelman of the Asia Programme at the Woodrow Wilson Centre recently wrote: “As reported in the Wilson Centre’s recent book on Pakistan’s population challenges, though Pakistan’s fertility rate is in decline, it is falling at a considerably slower pace than that of its neighbours, and the rate of decrease has slowed considerably over the last decade. The country’s total fertility rate (TFR) today is just under four, considerably above the replacement level rate (2.1).

“By many indications, Pakistan’s TFR does not figure to fall quickly anytime soon. Pakistan’s maternal and reproductive health sector is deeply troubled, with family planning services either of poor quality or nonexistent — particularly in rural areas.

Many rural women are obliged to travel on average 50 to 100km to obtain such services. Meanwhile, the status of Pakistani women is dreadful; female literacy is estimated to stand at only 44 per cent (some place it as low as 35 per cent), while women’s labour participation rates barely approach 20 per cent. Not surprisingly, Pakistan’s contraceptive prevalence rate is quite low (30 per cent), while its rate of unmet need for family planning is high (25 per cent).”

The government, politicians, military, media, judiciary, NGOs and general citizenry are being overwhelmed with the proximate symptoms confronting Pakistan. These include electricity shortages, water scarcity, gas loadshedding, energy deficiency, traffic jams, corroded infrastructure, land grabbing, underemployment, rampant corruption, political instability, a negation of law and order, religious extremism, terrorism, target killings, ethnic rifts, feudalism, inflation, illiteracy, sectarianism, escalating foreign/local debt, provincial disharmony, environmental degradation, non-existent governance, excessive military spending, economic stagnation, mounting poverty, housing scarcity, rising food prices, inadequate agricultural productivity, lack of justice, social frustration, unreliable healthcare and dangerous education.

We try to (or pretend to) tackle these proximate symptoms without looking at the ultimate cause behind them: a classic case of not seeing the forest for the trees.

Two weeks ago was World Population Day. We celebrated by adding another 9,000 Pakistanis to the 186 million who are already fighting with each other for their share of the dwindling resources of this republic. Some believe that the only thing that will slow down the population increase rate in the country is that eventually there will only be standing room for all.

The June 2011 issue of Scientific American reports: “A 93-year-old Nobel laureate [Christian de Duve], who received the Nobel Prize in 1974 in physiology or medicine, received a standing ovation from hundreds of scientists on June 30 at the end of a speech in which he urged the world’s young people to take measures to control runaway population growth in order to resolve related ills that have resulted from humans’ remarkable evolutionary success as a species.

“All is not lost, but the writing is on the wall. If we don’t act soon to overcome our genetic tendency to intra-group selfishness and inter-group hostility, the future of humanity and of much of life on Earth will be gravely endangered, possibly leading to total extinction under conditions that can only be visualised as apocalyptic.”

Can Pakistan see the writing on the wall? Will it do something about the ultimate cause before all is lost?

arfc@cyber.net.pk