LONDON, Nov 12: Latest trends in the world energy-consumption call for energy-supply investment of $26.3 trillion up to 2030, or over $1 trillion per year, “yet the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch that could choke economic recovery,” predicted the World Energy Outlook-2008, an International Energy Agency publication launched here on Wednesday.

In the WEO-2008 Reference Scenario, which assumes no new government policies, world primary energy demand grows by 1.6 per cent per year on average between 2006 and 2030 — an increase of 45 per cent.

This is slower than projected last year, mainly due to the impact of the economic slowdown, prospects for higher energy prices and some new policy initiatives.

Demand for oil rises from 85 million barrels per day now to 106 mb/d in 2030 — 10 mb/d less than projected last year. Demand for coal rises more than any other fuel in absolute terms, accounting for over a third of the increase in energy use. China and India account for over half of incremental energy demand to 2030 while the Middle East emerges as a major new demand centre. Almost all of the increase in fossil-energy production occurs in non-OECD countries.

Modern renewables are projected to grow most rapidly in the coming decades, overtaking gas to become the second-largest source of electricity soon after 2010.

“Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable – environmentally, economically and socially – they can and must be altered,” said Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of IEA.

“Rising imports of oil and gas into OECD regions and developing Asia, together with the growing concentration of production in a small number of countries, would increase our susceptibility to supply disruptions and sharp price hikes. At the same time, greenhouse-gas emissions would be driven up inexorably, putting the world on track for an eventual global temperature increase of up to 6°C,” he warned.