At last, there is some good news on the wheat front. The government has increased its support price by over 50 per cent — from Rs625 per 40kg to Rs950 — and has termed it the “minimum purchase price.”

If the country produces around 25 million tones of wheat--the target set by the government--an additional sum of Rs200 billion will be pumped into the rural economy. It will not only reduce poverty in rural areas, but also improve food security by working as an incentive for farmers to grow more wheat.

But the question remains: can only fiscal motivation of farmers be enough to meet the target, especially when almost all other factors for production are negative?

By increasing per tone price by Rs8,125 — from previous Rs15,625 to now Rs23,750 — or Rs8.12 per kilogramme, the government has increased farmers’ purchasing power of inputs. But, are these inputs available in the market even if the growers have money to spare. The answer, unfortunately, is no.

The next Rabi season would face water shortage of over 40 per cent. It could be even worse in areas (around 10 million acres) falling on River Chenab and the Upper and Lower Chenab canals, if India continues its squeeze on river flows.

The farmers would need to pump out this 40 per cent water, but there is a power supply crisis which is beyond farmers’ control. In Punjab alone some 150,000 tube wells are run on electricity. With over 18 hours load-shedding, the farmers could hardly meet the water requirements even if they want to.

Similarly over 700,000 diesel-powered tube wells would see the cost of pumping out water increased correspondingly as the government is determined to withdraw even the remaining minor subsidy on diesel. But they still have the option to pump out “unfit and brackish” water to feed their crops.

Availability of seed is yet another problem. With over 50 per cent increase in price, the farmers would naturally try to maximise acreage. But seed would remain a big problem. Punjab would need around 0.8 million tones of seed for around 16.5 million acres. Hardly half of the total required seed is available if the farmer bodies are to be believed. Since most of the wheat was smuggled to the neighbouring high-end markets, even the farmers’ private stocks. The provincial government recovered the rest of the stocks through administrative measures, and farmers are now left high and dry.

Even the Punjab Seed Corporation has only around 15 per cent of the total requirement and maintains that only 18 to 20 per cent seed is replaced every year and it was close to the figure by that calculation. But it does concede a shortfall of three to five per cent even by those replacement standards. Finding seed, even with money in pockets, would be a hard struggle for farmers this season.

Price and availability of fertiliser are two perennial problems for farmers. The country needs around 25 million bags of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) and 50 million bags of urea. Even half of the stocks are not currently available in the country and sowing has already started in upper and central Sindh and moving slowly upwards to Punjab. There is a need of massive import during the next four weeks if the target is to be achieved.

The government has increased subsidy on DAP as its price in the international market has gone up by almost 70 per cent. It has increased the amount of subsidy to Rs27 billion to absorb the world market increase. But, unfortunately, it has routed it through industrialists. Such attempts in the past have failed and the farmers always ended up paying the market price. The government has promised to keep DAP price at Rs3,300 per bag and subsidise the rest of it. It would be a challenge for the government, with experience so far being sour.

In such circumstances, where the government has tilted one factor of production in farmers’ favour but three other crucial ones are against the growers, it will be hard to meet the officially-fixed target and achieve that elusive food security. The government should step in to avoid adverse factors that can create crises for farmers.

First, it should release wheat from its stocks to meet the seed requirements and fill food needs from imported wheat. All relevant agencies should be moved to grade and re-grade wheat to sift healthy part of it, which should be supplied to farmers as seed. Otherwise, it will be hard for farmers to meet the sowing targets.

On the second hand, the government must take every step to ensure that fertiliser subsidy reaches the growers. It must monitor stocks of every claimant before granting subsidy money and also see to it how many new Letters of Credits (LCs) are opened for import so that importers and stockists do not get money on fake stocks and then order fresh imports to sell them at new inflated international prices. The world prices of DAP are as manipulated as the domestic ones. The farmers must be protected against world market manipulation.

As third step, the government must pressure India on Chenab inflows besides it should also start building up new canals to feed the area. As ad hoc measure, it should also consider subsidy on power and diesel for only sowing month, so that farmers could supplement their water needs. By limiting subsidy on power and diesel from October and mid-November, the government can also force farmers for timely sowing and brighten the chances of achieving the target.