September 30, 2008	Tuesday	Ramazan 29, 2008

LAHORE, Sept 29: The Pakistan Electric Power Supply Company (Pepco) on Monday returned to three-hour loadshedding regime throughout the country, with hydel generation plummeting because of lower dam levels and increasing temperature creating a deficit of over 1,500MW.

According to Pepco officials, the hydel generation has come down by around 500MW during the last two days — from peak generation of 6,500MW last week to 6,000MW on Monday.

Though the water releases have not been squeezed, dam heads have hit generation.

They fear that the situation could worsen further in the next few days if the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) reduces supplies to save water for Rabi crop, an eventuality which is matter of when rather than if.

The combined releases of 148,000 cusecs from both dams were still saving the day for PepCo. The pressure would double with reduction in releases – water and dam levels, which would go further down by then.

“During the current season, maximum demand went up to 17,500mw against peak supply of 13,500mw – a deficit of 4,000mw,” says Tahir Basharat Cheema of PepCo. During Ramazan, the company had decided to bring all its machines online and exempt Iftar and Sehri time from loadshedding. But with weather improving un-expectedly, the entire month went without loadshedding. The sudden rise in temperature during the last two days has resulted in switching on of air-conditions, generating an additional demand (read deficit) of around 1,000mw.

On the other hand, reduction in dams’ level – Tarbella Lake on Monday stood at 1,489 feet (some 61 feet below the maximum level of 1,550) and Mangla Dam at 1,183 feet (19 feet below the optimum level) – had pushed the generation down by around 10 per cent, he said and added: “Both these factors are translating into a overall shortfall of 1,500MW or two to three hours of loadshedding, depending on time and location.”

He insisted that improved oil supplies to independent power producers (IPPs) was also resulting in better supplies — over 4,800MW currently against 4,046MW last year during the corresponding days.

The Pepco’s thermal units have also been contributing some 2,800MW. All these factors have so far kept the supply management easy, says another official of the Pepco.

The situation is, however, likely to worsen during the next few days due to the poor hydrological conditions. All rivers have low inflow and dams depleting fast in the last 15 days. The Irsa had released 172,400 cusecs of water on Monday against total supply of 80,600 cusecs – meeting 91,800 cusecs from the reservoirs. “The situation cannot be allowed to continue and the Irsa would have to put brakes on dam depletion sooner than later. Once those brakes are applied, the generation would go down — increasing loadshedding duration,” he said.