September 07, 2008	Sunday	Ramazan 06, 1429

THE presidential poll has sprung no surprises in relation to Punjab. It has strengthened old impressions.

Punjab cannot always have its way.

— The people of Lahore and Punjab, and more importantly those who lead them, must understand that Pakistan includes areas existing at a distance from the Motorway.

— The Pakistan Muslim League-N’s support among the inhabitants of the province is reconfirmed. This reflected in not only the seats the PML-N won in the Feb 18 election, but add the possibility of a snap election and this is precisely the reason why so many of the PML-Q defectors have chosen to side with Shahbaz Sharif.

— The Sharifs are right now faced with no serious threat from anyone, whatever the media reports might have suggested about the activities of Messrs Salmaan Taseer and Manzoor Wattoo.

— Even if it tried now, the PPP has left it for far too late to challenge the Sharifs in Punjab.

The results are for once a sure sign of a functioning federation. The ominous part is — and which should bring to a stop the pro-status quo celebrations in Punjab — that the three smaller units have joined forces against an elder brother who they accuse of cheating. This is a dangerous trend.

Even more dangerous is the apathy this contention is met with by the rulers of Punjab. Instead of using the presidential election to display their numbers which were in any case never in doubt, Punjab could have gone along with the other three provinces and bowed to their will. This one act could have done much more for the health of the federation than all the apologies and promises put together.

The chance was missed and Justice (retd) Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui ended up with the 201 votes that everyone knew he will get.

Even the assertion that the presidential election confirmed the dismemberment of the PML-Q is an overstatement. The party had been pronounced over some time ago and its surviving leaders could have saved themselves the blushes by abstaining from the race.

They didn’t and made ex-journalism colleague Mushahid Hussain a scapegoat. We now know why the real claimants to power — the feudal lord and the industrialist — didn’t take the plunge themselves and instead left it to the middle class professional to complete the formality. It is only when they are sure of losing that they put up an Arif Iqbal Bhatti, a middle class party worker, against Nawaz Sharif from a Lahore constituency. When they fancy their chances, they contest the elections themselves. The election result should deter the PPP from making any bid for power in Punjab. But it has to be said that the party has not done all that badly. It got 21.5 votes against the PML-N’s share of 35.2 and les than six of PML-Q. Add the geography part and you might end up staring at not so thrilling divisions within Punjab.

This was below the figure predicted by some of the PPP leaders before the election, yet reasonably large even if the party was to be in near future pushed to sit on the opposition benches. So long as they have Governor Salmaan the Teaser to keep their spirits high although it has to be said that if he goes, we may have a relapse into the same old one-sided fare that we had experienced in the 1980s and 1990s.

The jiyalas argue that the PML-N owes it to the PPP for having allowed it to take power smoothly in Punjab. A PPP-PML-Q partnership in Punjab as well as at the centre was a real possibility after the general election of Feb 18. Wasn’t it the disinterest shown by the PPP in forming a government in Punjab that delivered to the PML-N many of the MPAs who voted for Justice Siddiqui in Saturday’s election?

This may be true to some extent but overemphasis on the point would deny the PML-N credit for having played its cards skilfully. It wasn’t that Mr Asif Zardari was acting clever alone. Others were also awake to the situation. Or they could have said goodbye to him the first time he betrayed them. They waited and consolidated their hold on Punjab, the province where they draw their strength from and to which belonged all but a few of their MNAs, before they parted ways with their ally.

This is precisely why it made no sense when Mr Zardari let the PML-N go when he did let them go over the judges. It is difficult to have them back in the coalition. Much has occurred since Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif were together. Some of the judges have been restored and others have been tagged as not fit in the name of continuity. The only point around which President Zardari can woo the PML-N back is the reason thrown up by the presidential election. If the PML-N’s victory chants are any measure of reality, the three against one equation is not a pretty equation. The four should move closer for the good of the whole.