June 05, 2008	Thursday	Jamadi-ul-Awwal 30, 1429

LAHORE, June 4: Wheat arrival at the Punjab Food Depart-ment’s procurement centres has dropped down to a paltry 4,000 tons per day with the department struggling at a total stock of 2.55 million tons, which is 1.75 million tons short of its target of 4.30 million tons.

According to officials, the drive would most probably terminate at around 2.6 million tons, leaving a yawning gap of 1.7 million tons. With millers already demanding release of wheat, the country seemed to be heading for another tough year, they said.

The department was supposed to procure one million tons for the NWFP and 300,000 tons for Balochistan. Both provinces would now be looking for imported wheat, which was still nowhere in sight. Meanwhile, both the provinces were already facing flour crunch because Punjab was jealously guarding its border against any drainage.

“The provincial government only has itself to blame for the mess,” says an official. Against all saner voices, the government took strict security steps to stop wheat movement which created panic in the market. Once a panic situation hits the market, farmers tend to keep more wheat than their usual requirement. Such steps were exercised in self-defeat and that was exactly what happened, he insisted.

Last year, when the government had liberal policy, the department ended up at 2.52 million tons. With all chaos and unconstitutional ban on wheat movement, the department was stuck at 2.55 million tons. Where has the benefit of so-called “strict administration pheromone” gone, he wondered.

This year, there was a substantial difference between the statistics of the agriculture and the revenue departments, says another official of the department. The agriculture department had put the figure at 16.3 million tons against the target of 18.5 million tons. The revenue department, which has its own mechanism to assess crop, however, put the figure at 15 million tons, another drop of 1.3 million tons. Thus, the total loss, according to revenue statistics, is around 3.5 million tons if target 18.5 million tons is something to go by.

“All this loss, as expected, has translated into drop in marketable surplus the farmers anyway keep wheat for their consumption,” he said. The department was hoping this drop and it had informed the provincial government. But somehow, the government was convinced that it could make for any loss through administrative measures. The result is now for every one to see, he said and added: “Had the government not panicked, the department could have procured at least another 300,000 tons. Its fixation with over administering wheat market made the departmental job more difficult.”

Another phenomenon, which was totally new this year, was price of rice, which almost doubled within nine days in early May as it jumped from Rs70 to Rs135 per kilogramme. This unprecedented jump generated immense speculative pressure on wheat as every one thought that wheat price would follow the rice suit. It played havoc with market as farmers took wheat to the secure confines of their home, which no administrative measure could recover.

According to departmental statistics, wheat production in Multan Division was 15.3 per cent less than the last year, 12 per cent less in DG Khan, eight per cent in Bhawalpur, five per cent in Faisalabad and five per cent in Sargodha. The only exception was Gujranwala, where yield went up by four per cent because rice farmer could afford to buy exceptionally costly inputs, he said.With crop already substantially short, over administering the market curtailed departmental options like never before. The millers were already demanding wheat release because they know departmental poverty. If the department released wheat, it would be damned. If it did not, the millers would hide behind the excuse of wheat shortage and increase prices. It was a catch-22 situation for the department and the government. The dependence would now be on the imported wheat. The sooner it arrived, the better it would be for consumers, he said.