April 16, 2008	Wednesday	Rabi-us-Sani 9, 1429

RAWALPINDI, April 15: Agricultural production will be increasingly constrained by the declining availability and degradation of water in the countries of Asia and the Pacific with implications for food production, says a report which puts development at heart of Asia-Pacific security.

At a time of record high prices for food commodities, the report, ‘International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD), released on Tuesday, says by 2020 per capita water availability is estimated to decline to between 15 per cent and 35 per cent of that available in 1950.

The way the world grows its food will have to change radically to better serve the poor and hungry if the world is to cope with a growing population and climate change while avoiding social breakdown and environmental collapse — a message from the report prepared by over 400 scientists, released by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (Unesco).

The report says rapid urbanisation and industrialisation in the region leads to competition for productive land resources. In addition, there are problems of increasing land degradation, declining soil fertility, increasing toxicity, and salinity/alkalinity. Projects to reclaim degraded lands for arable purposes will only make a small contribution to future growth in food production, it warns.

Along with increases in productivity there is also a need for systems of compensation, payments and other rewards that might increase the supply of environmental public goods linked to particular forms of land use. These can be coupled with stringent environmental regulations that will ensure the most productive and effective use of limited resources, the report emphasises.

The report predicts that by the year 2020 nitrogen pollution from food production (fertiliser use and domestic animal waste) and consumption systems will increase by 1.3-1.6 times in East Asian countries from 2002 levels.

The report warns that agricultural production in the region will be threatened by climate change and variability. Through emissions from rice cultivation and livestock, and deforestation, agriculture in the region contributes substantially to GHG emissions. To mitigate the effects of climate change, agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) development to reduce emissions from agriculture, is needed. In order to adapt to climate change, AKST development is required to meet the challenges of cultivation that is resistant to drought, long inundation, salt, high temperatures, and so on. As water availability will be highly variable over time and space, AKST development also is necessary for conserving water and increasing irrigation efficiency.

“Unless there is a determination to promote development, much of eastern Asia faces the prospect of serious social problems and an increasingly degraded environment.” The assessment report says current patterns of agricultural development will increase pollution and environmental deterioration and pose major challenges for growing food and reducing poverty. Without political commitment by key decision-makers to ensure development, the downward spiral towards socio-economic turmoil and ecological degradation may be rapid and perhaps even irreversible, it says.

The report argues that some of the gains of the region's high growth can and should be used to build safety nets for the rural poor, the majority of whom are women: it advocates policies designed to secure gender equity and social inclusion.

The report's detailed recommendations on using agricultural knowledge to help the region include ways of arresting the loss of forests and grasslands, tackling land and water degradation, conserving biodiversity, and both mitigating and adapting to climate change. And with conflicts increasing over natural resources and anxieties evident in disputes about fishing rights and water sharing, it sees a need to develop regional co-operation and conflict resolution systems.

It calls for “multi-functional” agriculture, serving our multiple demands for sustainability, equity, development and food. There are, it concludes, “unprecedented challenges ahead”. It believes the way to meet them lies in re-directing the wealth of agricultural knowledge and expertise the world has built up: it should be targeted towards agro-ecological strategies that combine productivity with protecting natural resources like soils, water, forests, and biodiversity.