April 12, 2008	Saturday	Rabi-us-Sani 5, 1429

KARACHI, April 11: The March inflation, which rose to a record 14.2 per cent, can go up further if impact of revised oil prices is also included.

Experts are of the view that April may show more painful results, especially for the poor.

According to Farhan Rizvi, a researcher at the JS Company, necessary data on Consumer Price Index (CPI) is captured via a survey conducted in the first two weeks of the relevant month. “It means that March 2008 CPI figures would not carry the impact of second petroleum product price revision made on March 16,” he said.

The government had increased petroleum prices by an average of seven per cent, which means that the impact could push up the CPI close to 15 per cent.

“With petroleum products prices revised upward by an average of seven per cent, we can see a further thrust of inflation in April and beyond,” said Mr Rizvi.

The impact of wheat support price, from Rs510 to Rs625 per 40kgs would also hit inflation in April.

It is believed that wheat crop output of 22 million tons in 2008, which is eight per cent lower than the government’s target of 24 million tons, could cause some demand and supply imbalances in the coming months. This will again increase inflationary in April.

“Given that wheat occupies approximately six per cent weight in the overall CPI basket, food inflation may increase even further,” said Mr Rizvi.

Oil and wheat prices have shattered the price structure of general commodities, including rice, milk, pulses, cooking oil and all other common items.