KARACHI, Feb 7: With the country due to go to the polls on Feb 18, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is eyeing with some confidence 18 national assembly seats out of the total 20 available in Karachi, as compared to the 12 national assembly seats the party bagged in the 2002 elections. Nevertheless, the party concedes at it will face a tough contest in at least one of the constituencies.
In the 2002 elections, the MQM fielded candidates in all 20 constituencies but lost eight seats: two national assembly seats were won by the Pakistan People’s Party-Parliamentarians (PPP-P), five by the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) and one seat was bagged by the Mohajir Qaumi Movement, the breakaway faction of the Altaf Hussain-led MQM.
Later, NA-255 (including Korangi industrial area, Nek Mohammed Goth, Moinabad, Mansehra Colony, Landhi and Awami Colony) and NA-250 (portions of Saddar town, Karachi Cantonment and Clifton Cantonment including Railway Colony, Saddar, Tibat Centre, Hijrat Colony, Bath Island, Clifton GOR Colony, Parsi Colony, Gizri and the Defence Housing Authority) fell vacant after the deaths of MQM-H legislator Mahmood Ahmed Qureshi and MMA parliamentarian Abdul Sattar Afghani respectively. The MQM won these seats during the by-elections.
This time round, however, the party expects to perform even better. Maintaining that the MQM started its preparations right after the 2005 local body polls, party leaders told Dawn that their election cell had started work well before the schedule for the forthcoming elections was announced. They said that in addition to holding corner and public meetings, the party was using all the resources at its disposal to run campaigns in not only Karachi but also across Sindh and other major towns and cities of the country.
Party leaders maintained that it is MQM’s priority to encourage the maximum number of people to come out to vote on Feb 18, in order to play for the most votes in its favour. “We want to win at least 17, if not 18, of the city’s national assembly seats by a huge margin,” MQM leader Faisal Subzwari told Dawn.
In the 2002 general elections, the MQM secured 692,355 votes in the 20 Karachi national assembly constituencies against a total of 4,743,993 registered votes. The percentage of votes polled to registered votes ranged between 32.2 per cent in NA-248 to the maximum of 44.9 per cent in NA-242.
Tough contest expected
In Karachi at least, the MQM has a visible presence with the party’s tri-coloured flag bearing the election symbol of the kite and portraits of party leader Altaf Hussain abundantly in evidence.
But the PPP’s election symbol of the arrow and portraits of its assassinated chairperson Benazir Bhutto also jostle for attention and since Dec 27, there has been increasing talk of public sympathy swinging the vote. Sources within the MQM, however, told Dawn that while the PPP would benefit by the sympathy vote, this factor was not expected to adversely affect the MQM vote bank.
In NA-239 (including Tapo Gabopat of Old Karachi, Ittehad town, New Saeedabad Yousaf Goth, PAF base Masroor, Machar Colony, Sultanabad, Keamari, Bhitt island), the party expects tough competition but is hopeful of good results given that it is fielding S. K. Mujahid Baloch as its candidate. Party leaders told Dawn that Mr Mujahid is a popular figure in the constituency and enjoys a vote bank other than the MQM’s traditional vote.
As far as NA-248 (Lyari, including Agra Taj Colony, Naval Colony, Daryabad, Baghdadi, Chakiwara and Eidgah) and NA-258 (including Malir, most of Bin Qasim town and Gadap town) are concerned, however, the MQM concedes that its chances of winning are very low but hopes that it will at least manage to secure more votes than in the 2002 general elections.
For NA-248 and NA-258, the reasons behind the MQM’s defeat in 2002 were obvious: both constituencies are PPP strongholds. The MQM enjoys merely a nominal vote here and won only 4,825 votes in the former and 8,400 votes in the latter during the last elections. This time round too, while the MQM has fielded candidates on both constituencies, party leaders privately acknowledge that they have no chance of winning the seats.
The MQM also maintains that during the last elections, the party was not allowed to run an election campaign in the areas that were then controlled by its rival, MQM-H. “We therefore lost NA-255 (including Korangi industrial area, Nek Mohammed Goth, Moinabad, Mansehra Colony, Landhi and Awami Colony),” said a senior party leader. “But when the by-elections were held, Dr Farooq Sattar of our party won by a clear majority.”
Boycott to benefit MQM
Meanwhile, the MQM’s main rival, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), has announced a boycott for the forthcoming general elections, as a result of which MQM stalwarts are hoping for a convincing victory with increased confidence. In NA-252 (portions of Gulshan-i-Iqbal and Jamsheed town including Garden East, Soldier Bazaar, Hyderabad Colony, PIB colony and Essa Nagri) in particular, the MQM expects to benefit from the JI boycott and romp home to victory. And as a party leader claimed, “while the MMA is contesting from almost every national assembly seat in the city, it will not be able to affect the results much without the JI.”
Last time round, the MQM’s defeat at the hands of the MMA was quite unexpected. Explaining this, the MQM’s Mr Subzwari pointed out that that the MQM had boycotted the local body elections held in 2001 and JI candidates won because of this. “As compared to the JI, therefore, the MQM was not too well-prepared to contest the 2002 general elections that were held on the basis of new voters’ lists and in delimited constituencies,” said Mr Subzwari. “As a result, we did not perform well in some constituencies and lost seats by narrow margins.”
Past performance
In the 2002 contest, the MQM managed to get the second highest number of votes against candidates of the six-party religious alliance of the MMA in four national assembly constituencies: NA-241 (Orangi and other areas including Pathan Colony, Frontier Colony, Metroville of Site town, Bismillah Colony and Baba Willayat Shah Colony), NA-250 (portions of Saddar town, Karachi Cantonment and Clifton Cantonment including Railway Colony, Saddar, Tibat Centre, Hijrat Colony, Bath Island, Clifton GOR Colony, Parsi Colony, Gizri and the Defence Housing Authority), NA-252 (portions of Gulshan-e-Iqbal and Jamsheed town including Garden East, Soldier Bazaar, Hyderabad Colony, PIB colony and Essa Nagri) and NA-253 (major areas of Gulshan-e-Iqbal and Gulistan-e-Jauhar (excluding the cantonment area), Karachi and NED universities, Metroville, Shantinagar and portions of Gubhan town and Faisal cantonment).
The difference in the number of votes won by the winning MMA candidates and the runner-up MQM candidates was as follows:
NA-241: Winning margin of 479 votes
NA-250: 2,048 votes
NA-252: 10,227 votes
NA-253: 2,880 votes
For NA-239 (including Tapo Gabopat of Old Karachi, Ittehad town, New Saeedabad Yousaf Goth, PAF base Masroor, Machar Colony, Sultanabad, Keamari, Bhitt island) and NA-255 (including Korangi industrial area, Nek Mohammed Goth, Moinabad, Mansehra Colony, Landhi and Awami Colony) the MQM stood at the third position in 2002. These seats were n by the MMA and MQM-H respectively.
The PPP-P won NA-248 (Lyari, including Agra Taj Colony, Naval Colony, Daryabad, Baghdadi, Chakiwara and Eidgah) and NA-258 (including Malir, most of Bin Qasim town and Gadap town), where MQM candidates stood fourth in terms of the number of votes cast in their favour.
Distribution of votes polled and seats captured by political parties in Sindh during the National Assembly elections, 2002
POLITICAL PARTY Party Seats
Votes Won
(%) (Numbers)
Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 36.60 27
Muttahida Qaumi Movement 15.73 13
National Alliance 10.86 5
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan 10.65 6
Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) 8.94 4
Pakistan Muslim League (Functional Group) 5.43 4
Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif Group) 1.60 0
Sunni Tehreek 1.19 0
Other Parties 2.40 1
Independent 6.60 1
Total 100 61
Total Votes (in millions) 6.05
Distribution of votes polled and seats captured by political
parties in the Lower Sindh Region-Karachi cluster during
the National Assembly elections, 2002
POLITICAL PARTY Party Seats
Votes Won
(%) (Numbers)
Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 13.68 2
Muttahida Qaumi Movement 40.71 12
National Alliance 0.53 0
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan 27.72 5
Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) 2.33 0
Pakistan Muslim League (Functional Group) 0.01 0
Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif Group) 2.41 0
Sunni Tehreek 3.76 0
Other Parties 6.71 1
Independent 2.14 0
Total 20
Total Votes (in millions) 1.75
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