COLOMBO: With the Sri Lankan military’s collective goal for the New Year being the elimination of the LTTE and its leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran, analysts say the future of the war would be based on whether or not this is possible in 2008.

On Sunday Military Commander, General Sarath Fonseka was quoted in the State controlled Sunday Observer as stating that it was uncertain if the LTTE leader would survive the next six months. He also told the newspaper that the military’s aim was to kill 10 rebels a day.

Analysts say military morale is high following the Air Force bombing early November which killed guerilla political wing leader S. P. Thamilchelvam which was followed by reports that the LTTE leader Prabhakaran was injured weeks after in another air raid.“Obviously, they (Air force) now have a clear idea of where to attack. The accurate targeting of S. P. Thamilchelvam and the injury to Prabhakaran following an air raid on Nov 26 and 28 shows that inside information is available on the movements of the LTTE high command,” a military strategist said.

Meanwhile Government military spokesman Minister Keheliya Rambukwella speaking to Dawn expressed confidence that the LTTE would be ‘decimated’ and that the military will soon take control of northern territory where the rebels at present run a de facto government.

The Minister’s comments come as Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse called for an official end to the Ceasefire Agreement with the guerillas, describing the peace pact signed in February 2002 as a ‘joke’.

“The vital fact is there is no CFA and it is just a document. The CFA is a joke,” the Defence Secretary who is the brother of President Mahinda Rajapakse said.

Meanwhile, President Mahinda Rajapakse in his New Year message said his “foremost wish this year is success in the efforts to defeat terrorism in all its forms” and promised a new beginning for a political process that enables the sharing of power within a single, undivided country, assuring equality to all.

Meanwhile analysts and diplomatic sources say the international community, especially Sri Lanka’s immediate neighbour India, is keenly watching the developments in the war front following the recent heavy defeats of the LTTE.

“The LTTE and its leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran seem to be vulnerable to the tightening of the noose by troops around the de facto state run by the rebels. More and more reports emanating from north are suggesting that the ageing Vellupillai Prabhakaran who is already ailing with diabetes and hypertension is injured. If Prabhakaran dies then the general conclusion is that the war could be over and the stage set for an ushering of a political solution where the aspirations of the minorities, both the Muslims and the Tamils are met,” a diplomatic source said.

“If Prabhakaran is eliminated then there is a chance that countries such as India which is reluctant to get involved in the Sri Lankan war-peace saga would change its mind. Without Prabhakaran India can get directly involved in peace brokering and ensure that the Tamils get a just political solution to their grievances,” he explained.

Meanwhile government officials say they are ready to give a political solution ‘to the Tamil people’ and not to ‘the LTTE terrorists.’

“All the LTTE leader wanted after signing the peace agreement in 2002 was to bide time and wage his war. We will free the north of terrorism and in a united country bring in a political solution acceptable to the Tamils, Muslims and the Sinhalese,” government military spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella said when contacted.

Peace lobbyists say they fear a situation of mayhem as the year was heralded with the assassination of Tamil politician Thiagaraja Maheswaran on Tuesday.

“We have ushered in a year of bloodshed and suffering and as civilians we stand helpless unable to do anything to stop it,” Saroja Sivachandran, humanitarian activist and member of the Human Rights Commission opined.