PESHAWAR, Sept 27: The cat is out of the bag, sooner than the JUI (F) leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman would have liked. The October 2 date set for the MMA to seek dissolution of the NWFP Assembly gives ample time to its opponents to upset the APDM’s apple cart, insiders and constitutional experts said.

Politics is the art of the possible, but in this case it appears that the whole drama has been very well scripted and choreographed.

The JUI (F) leader announced at a crowded press conference here on Thursday that Chief Minister Akram Khan Durrani would advise the Governor of the NWFP, Lt-Gen (retd) Ali Muhammad Jan Aurakzai, on October 2 to dissolve the NWFP Assembly.

Going by Article 54 of the Constitution read with Article 127 (Summoning and Prorogation of the Parliament), all that the pro-Musharraf opposition in the province has do is to seek the requisition of the assembly along with a notice of no-confidence motion against the chief minister. According to Article 54(3), the speaker shall summon the provincial assembly to meet, at such time and place as he thinks fit, within 14 days of the receipt of the requisition.

The earliest the NWFP Speaker, Mr Bakht Jehan Khan, can summon the assembly is the very next day of receiving the requisition, on October 3.

The opposition combine including the PML (Q), the PPP (Sherpao) and a number of independents supporting them, will move the resolution seeking a vote of no-confidence against Chief Minister Durrani.

According to Article 136 (1) of the Constitution, a resolution for a vote of no-confidence can be moved by no less than 20 per cent of the total membership, meaning that the opposition would need at least 24 votes in the house of 124 to be able to move the motion.

The opposition claims have 32 votes. Here, Benazir’s Pakistan People’s Party’s nine votes can be crucial. Now here is the trick. Once the resolution is moved, according to article 136 (2) of the Constitution, a resolution shall not be voted upon before the expiration of three days, or later than seven days, from the day on which such a resolution has been moved.

In the explanation given in article 112 of the Constitution, a chief minister shall not be construed as chief minister, against whom a notice of a resolution for a vote of no-confidence has been given in the assembly, implying that he cannot advise the governor to dissolve the provincial assembly so long as the vote of no-confidence is pending against him.

In practical terms, the earliest Mr Bakht Jehan can convene the NWFP assembly for a vote of no-confidence is October 5. The opposition has to have at least 32 votes to be able to move the resolution. In all likelihood, the opposition will lose and Chief Minister Durrani will get the vote of confidence. Even if he advises Governor Aurakzai on October 5 to dissolve the assembly on that day, article 112 (1) of the Constitution says: “The governor shall dissolve the provincial assembly if so advised by the chief minister, and the provincial assembly shall, unless sooner dissolved, stand dissolved at the expiration of forty-eight hours after the chief minister has so advised.“

According to the election schedule of the president, voting shall take place on October 6, so technically speaking, if the NWFP governor does not act on the chief minister’s advice, the provincial assembly will remain intact on the day of the presidential election, until notified it dissolves by itself at the expiration of the 48-hour deadline.

Opposition says that a presiding officer, in this case the chief justice of the high court, would preside over the provincial assembly on October 6, to oversee the voting process. Even if the MMA boycotts the poll, the pro-Musharraf MPAs would be too happy to come and vote for Gen Musharraf and, therefore, the whole question of one federating unit not taking part in the presidential election as a federating unit would evaporate into thin air.

So far so good. Now the question arises whether the APDM leadership knew the ‘date-sensitivity’ before setting the date for the dissolution of the NWFP assembly. Or the October 2 date is a ploy to hoodwink the federal government.

A senior leader of a party who was present at the APDM meeting at Mr Jhagra’s house, told Dawn that it was on Fazlur Rehman’s insistence that the date of dissolution of the NWFP assembly was delayed from September 29 to October 2.

“He was adamant. He threatened to part ways if the APDM either did not review its decision of the dissolution of the NWFP assembly or did not put off the date,” the leader said, requesting he not be named.

He said that the Maulana insisted that the APDM differ its decisions till the outcome of the Supreme Court verdict or until the final list of the presidential candidates was displayed.

He acknowledged that some opposition leaders had an inkling as to why the Maulana was seeking a delay. “It was clear. He was trying to save Musharraf the embarrassment of getting vote from an incomplete electoral college.”

“There was no other way but to agree with him. Saying no to him would have caused a split in the APDM and the MMA and this was kind of a face-saving that we came up with”, he said.

Whatever the reason, the pro-Musharraf opposition in the NWFP is confident they can pull it off. “Maulana has helped us out”, a key leader of the opposition told Dawn, though he said they would be meeting in Islamabad on Friday to work out a strategy.

There are indications that the plan had already been put in place to deal with the likely scenario of the MMA seeking dissolution of the NWFP assembly. A federal minister is reported to have offered the chief minister’s slot to an anti-Musharraf opposition party in the NWFP, should they lend support to the no-confidence move against Mr Durrani. The opposition party ‘declined with thanks’, saying the offer had come too late in the day with elections just round the corner.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman has again proven himself to be an astute politician. He has firmly put his legs in two boats. He is helping the federal government sail through the presidential vote while he is also with the opposition. He is having his cake and is eating it too”, is how one analyst put the JUI (F) leader’s latest move.