September 17, 2007	Monday	Ramazan 04, 1428

MOSCOW: If Russia’s power structure were one of those cute matryoshka dolls sold in markets to tourists, then President Vladimir Putin would be the outer shell. And inside? Vladimir Putin, Putin, and Putin.

The wily Kremlin leader is due to leave office in 2008, but less than six months before the March 2, 2008, election to replace him, his dominance remains unchallenged.

There are still no major official contenders for the presidency and, far from being a lame duck, Putin clearly calls the shots – as demonstrated in his shock change of prime minister last week.

Now many analysts believe the ex-KGB lieutenant-colonel could be planning to retain power in 2008, with his mysterious appointment as premier of the virtually unknown Viktor Zubkov, 66, a first step.

“What we know of President Putin’s ambition is that he not only wants to remain as Russia’s most powerful person until the March 2008 election, but also to carve out a post-election role,” said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at URALSIB bank.

No one expects a crude power grab. Elections will be on schedule and Putin, 54, will step down in line with the constitutional limit on two consecutive four-year terms.

Yet analysts believe Putin could easily keep power behind the throne if he were succeeded by a technocrat president. Then at the next election, scheduled for 2012, he could run again for another eight years in the Kremlin.

An uncharismatic administrator like Zubkov, say Weafer and other analysts, would make an ideal stand-in.

“It is highly probable that (Putin) will return as Russia’s fourth president,” Weafer said. “It is also entirely possible that this could occur well before the scheduled election date in 2012.”Putin fed the rumour mill on Friday by suggesting Zubkov as a potential candidate for 2008 and teasingly refusing to rule out his own comeback in 2012.“What he said is that it is really too far away and that he doesn’t want to think about it now,” Oksana Antonenko, a senior fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Studies, said after meeting Putin at a roundtable with foreign experts.

The ‘Putin stays’ option is only one of several tossed around by modern-day Kremlinologists, as they peer into Russia’s opaque political system.

Some experts believe Putin will genuinely leave, ceding his place to another powerful figure such as first deputy premier and ex-KGB officer Sergei Ivanov.

What’s sure is that almost eight years into a gruelling job, Putin shows little sign of tiring.

He has approval ratings of at least 70 per cent, something Western leaders can only dream of.

And while Moscow digested the change of government last week, he toured a rural region and took part in election-style photo-ops, even feeding milk to a calf. A keen sportsman, he caused a minor sensation during his summer holiday by posing shirtless.With an all-powerful state media machine and pliant parliament, Putin has none of the normal worries facing politicians, said Boris Makarenko, deputy director at Moscow’s Centre for Political Technologies.

Zubkov’s surprise candidacy, for example, was announced out of the blue and faced less than a day of cursory examination by legislators.

“It shows that Putin is in command, that his presidential powers are very strong,” Makarenko said. “Voters will not influence his decision.” The biggest secret to Putin’s extraordinary authority, analysts say, is his unique role as arbitrator between rival clans in the Russian political and business elite.—AFP