September 04, 2007	Tuesday	Sha'aban 21, 1428

CAIRO: More than 2,000 Egyptians have joined a discussion group on Facebook, the popular internet social networking website, to ponder one overwhelming question:

“What will you do when (President) Hosni Mubarak dies?”

Postings began in June but they have been coming thick and fast in the past 10 days amid persistent speculation about the health of the 79-year-old Egyptian head of state and the future of the position he has held for a quarter of a century.

Many of the commentators have never known any leader other than Mubarak, who has run the Arab world’s most populous nation since 1981. Some assume he will outlive them.

“I do not think that we will live to see his funeral,” wrote Rami Ragi, a member of the group.

The presidency and other state institutions said nothing when the rumours began, even when independent newspapers and television stations started to mention them.

The only official comment on the president’s health has been from his wife Suzanne, who finally dismissed the rumours on Saturday night after two televised appearances by him failed to convince everyone he was alive and well: “The president is fit as a fiddle,” she said.

The stories have revived fears of instability in the event of his death, especially in the absence of an obvious candidate to succeed him other than his politician son Gamal.

“His absence will likely open up a power struggle that only God knows when it will end,” wrote political analyst Hassan Nafaa in the independent daily Al Masry Al Youm on Sunday.

Ahmed Saied, a 25-year-old sports writer, agreed. “If he dies everything in the country could fall with him,” he said.

“This country is ruled by one man, (who) controls everything.”

Like more than 50 per cent of Egypt’s 73 million people, Saied was born after Mubarak took office and has watched him maintain a firm grip on power, despite international criticism of Egypt’s human rights record.

Writing for another Facebook group on Mubarak, Laila Gharib said: “Although I want him out of the picture, I am worried about Egypt without him.”

VISITING FACTORIES: The first official response was for Mubarak to make a televised tour of the Smart Village, an information technology development zone of the outskirts of Cairo.

Rumour-mongers said the television footage was old, adding to people’s suspicions that something was wrong. A local reporter present during the tour told the news agency the footage was new and authentic.

Mubarak then appeared on television visiting factories near his summer residence on the Mediterranean coast, but some people said a double took his place, despite the apparent authenticity of the president’s voice and gestures.

The official Middle East News Agency (MENA) dismissed their suggestions as “lies”.

Mubarak collapsed during a speech to parliament in November 2003 and had back surgery in Germany in June 2004, but he has said he is in good health.

Some analysts said the government should have issued a medical report clarifying the matter straight away.

“Why make the president’s health a military secret?” asked Ibrahim Eissa, outspoken editor of the independent daily el-Dostur. “This proves that the regime cannot manage crises ...

They do not want to bring up talk about the president’s health or the succession,” he told the news agency.

“Such talk would bring the president down to the level of ordinary people who get ill and die. They (the rulers) believe that gods do not die,” he added.

Opposition groups and analysts believe the president is grooming his son for the top job. But some say such a succession could only happen while Mubarak is alive to prevent a power struggle or a military intervention, since his son would be the first civilian ruler of Egypt since 1952.

Gamal, 43, a former investment banker and an assistant secretary-general of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), has repeatedly denied having any presidential ambitions.

Adding to the ambiguity is uncertainty about the army’s position on the succession and Mubarak’s refusal to appoint a vice president, the route to the top job in Egypt’s only two successions in more than 50 years.

Under the constitution, if the president is dead or incapacitated, the speaker of parliament takes charge of the country until a multi-candidate election takes place. The next election is expected by 2011.

But the constitution places tough restrictions on the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s strongest opposition group, fielding any candidate to replace Mubarak, Egypt’s longest-serving ruler since Mohamed Ali Pasha in the early 19th century.—Reuters