The worsening energy crisis
By Syed Mohibullah Shah
TONIGHT, when you turn on your flat panel television to watch your favourite programme, take a closer look. You will be looking at a most promising solution to energy problems, especially for poorer countries in Asia and Africa for whom affordable energy is becoming increasingly inaccessible.
The fulfilment of this promise is round the corner. In less than five years, technological breakthrough in material sciences along with new economics of energy are making solar power the big solution to future energy problems.
This technology was developed in the 1970s, soon after the first oil shocks hit the world. But as oil prices fell quickly again, the technology was put to reverse use in the television and computer industries to generate profits for its sponsors. Now as Asian economies continue to rise on the back of their successful industrial revolution, the economics of energy has been fuelling a renaissance in the technologies of energy. This is making it possible for solar power to be competitive with oil-based power within five years and cheaper by half within a decade.
Take a look at your flat panel TV screen again. The bright light which displays colourful images on that screen is produced when electricity is passed through special conductive material which converts electricity into light. The semiconductors do the reverse job too, i.e. absorb sunlight to produce usable electricity.
That part was known. Barriers existed because semiconductors were expensive silicon crystals or amorphous silicon. The good news is that barriers are being removed by the manufacture of cheap, electrically conductive plastics and other organic materials. This makes market penetration by solar power cheap and easy. And it is now set to take over a big share of the world energy market from its competitors — conventional as well as other alternate sources of energy.
Apart from cost effectiveness, these new products enjoy hitherto unknown flexibility, because they can be used in film rolls to be stuck or spread across or as liquids to be coated over any surface or size. Already this breakthrough in material sciences has earned one brilliant scientist the Nobel Prize and products are also entering the commercial market.
Several companies in Germany, Japan and the US are now scrambling to sponsor and own different pieces of this technology in order to ride on the wave of future profits. Although wind power (as an alternate source) currently generates more power worldwide, this technological breakthrough in material sciences has changed the dynamics, so much so that most knowledgeable energy experts believe that solar power is poised to outstrip wind power and provide “20 per cent of all the incremental energy needed worldwide by 2040.”
Solar power also has other advantages which extend its competitive edge over other sources, including alternates. It is a silent technology which does not involve the construction of huge turbines that tower over the landscape and intrude into the skyline, and its flexibility is unmatched by others.
But the most unparalleled advantage of solar energy is that it provides an infinite source of clean and virtually free energy. Look at its magnitude: every minute the sun pounds the surface of the earth with more energy than the entire world consumes in one whole year! Now slowly but surely, man is finding it technologically and economically feasible to access this unlimited source of energy for its ever-growing needs.
This is a special boon for the poor sun-baked regions of Asia and Africa, although, sadly, even their rich public and private organisations like the Arab League, the OIC and other foundations have had very little to do with the development or sponsorship of this breakthrough, despite the fact that their people would be the biggest beneficiaries.
This breakthrough in energy technology is now ahead of other conventional energy sources, just like cellular phone technology leapfrogged landline systems leaving these behind in a very short time. The breakthrough in solar energy technology now makes it possible for villages that had never seen electricity to directly benefit from it, just like they did in the telecommunication age with cellular technology.
Pakistan’s energy problems are a product of an antiquated and costly energy profile. Added to this are the problems generated by its organisational structures, spread across several ministries and agencies. Both these regressive features are still trying to fly against the combined logic of technology and economics.
Unlike China and India which — like Europe and US before — have been industrialising their economies on the back of cheap indigenous coal-based power that meets over 60 per cent of their needs, Pakistan uses coal for only one per cent of its power generation. No high growth rates can be sustained in an economy on the back of unaffordable and inaccessible energy.
Coal has powered industrialisation of practically every country in the world since the industrial revolution, except Pakistan and some oil-rich Gulf states. It continues to be the fuel of the future as well because of its reinvention as clean coal in power-generation and coal-based liquid fuel fit enough for jet engines among other uses.
Pakistan’s antiquated energy paradigm has already landed the country in the worst energy crisis of its history. With regular power outages lasting for hours on end, the unavailability of power has been added to the severe problems already caused by its non-affordability. The gap between demand and supply has been allowed to widen because of non-serious and biased approaches to the issue.
Energy challenges of the future cannot be met by Pakistan without cleaning the old stables of a sector involving various ministries and agencies whose turf wars have been a major cause of the country’s energy predicament. This fragmented organisational structure dating back to before even the first energy crisis hit the world is out of sync with contemporary realities. The divergent elements of this sector need to be integrated so that its divided components with divided loyalties do not function at cross purposes and provide loopholes for failures without pinning responsibilities.
In Pakistan, such an integration of the energy sector has been overdue. There should be a single ministry of energy integrating the truncated activities spread across the petroleum and natural resources and water and power ministries and other agencies.The mines and mineral paraphernalia attached to petroleum and natural resources should be sent over to the provinces where they belong. The power wing of Wapda and the power paraphernalia of the water and power ministry should be brought under this new energy ministry along with oil and gas functions.
Wapda should become the water management agency and should be affiliated with the food and agriculture ministry to which water resource management rightly belongs. Fisheries and livestock activities now centralised under that ministry should be shunted out to provinces where they are better managed, being closer to the scene.
Such a well-integrated ministry of energy would provide the right platform for Pakistan to successfully face future challenges — not only domestic challenges but also those arising from international moves on the energy chessboard.
Energy is extremely important not just for sustained growth but for survival as well. Our continued refusal to reform our several social and political predicaments is pushing the country back into the dark ages in a metaphorical sense. With the growing energy crisis, this may be taken literally as well.
The writer is a former head of Board of Investment and federal secretary.
smshah@alum.mit.edu

