PESHAWAR, June 23: The NWFP government has forecast a growth rate of 6.7 per cent in the provincial gross domestic product (PGDP) for the next financial year.

Estimates show that the PGDP will grow at the rate of 6.8 per cent, 7 per cent and 7.1 per cent in the financial years 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11, respectively.

Interestingly, the PGDP has been worked out on the basis of mere assumptions, as there is no mention in the budget documents of the performance of the manufacturing, trade, agriculture production, services, minerals and hydropower production sectors and their contribution to the provincial economy.

“The federal government did not reveal the statistics about the size of the provincial economies, thus the figures for the PGDP have been worked out on the basis of some assumptions, such as the Consumer Price Index, inflation rate and indirect taxes/subsidies,” the budget documents state.

The provincial government claims that the assumptions have been calculated in line with the accounts of the financial year 2005-06, which indicate that the upward trend of the PGDP will remain below the overall growth of the national GDP. On this basis, the size of the PGDP remains Rs734 billion, or 9.5 per cent, of the national GDP which was reported to be Rs7,713 billion in 2005-06.

The government forecast that the size of the PGDP will be about Rs839 billion in the outgoing fiscal year, Rs956 billion in 2007-08, Rs1,080 billion in 2008-09, Rs1,217 billion in 2009-10 and Rs1,372 billion in 2010-11.

Percentage-wise the nominal growth rate for the PGDP in these years will be 14.3 per cent, 13.9 per cent, 13 per cent, 12.7 per cent and 12.8 per cent against the national GDP of 15 per cent, 14.4 per cent, 13.3 per cent, 13 per cent and 13 per cent respectively. The PGDP share in the national GDP will stand at 9.46 per cent in financial year 2006-07, 9.42 per cent in 2007-08, 9.39 per cent in 2008-09, 9.37 per cent in 2009-10 and 9.35 per cent in 2010-11, the documents add.