Politics of diversion

POLITICS in Pakistan has hit a new low in terms of intellectual content and is revolving around personalities and their lives. In Islamabad on Tuesday, MQM parliamentary leader Dr Farooq Sattar moved a petition with the National Assembly Speaker against Mr Imran Khan, while in London the Tehrik-i-Insaf chief is campaigning against Mr Altaf Hussain and has met Mr Nawaz Sharif and some British politicians, including MP George Galloway. The MQM petition seeks the

TIP chief’s disqualification as a parliamentarian under Articles 62-63 of the Constitution, while Mr Khan wants the British government to stop the MQM chief’s political activity, if not revoke his citizenship. In his petition to the Speaker, the MQM leader has attached copies of a US court judgment concerning Mr Khan’s personal life, while in London the ex-prime minister has promised to give the TIP chief “secret information” about and “strong evidence” of the London-based MQM leader’s alleged involvement in Hakim Said’s murder in October 1998. Mr Sharif remained prime minister after Hakim Said’s murder for another year and all he did was to establish governor’s rule in Sindh, and the nine persons charged with the crime were acquitted by a court. More than seven years after losing power, Mr Sharif says he has “strong evidence” of Mr Hussain’s involvement in the crime.

The attacks on the two politicians are in addition to the on-going crisis revolving around President Pervez Musharraf and the ‘non-functional’ Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. All matters of import affecting Pakistan’s politics, economy and society have been pushed into the background, as if only Mr Hussain and Mr Khan are sorted out, everything will be hunky-dory. It is worth noting that the Jamaat-i-Islami and JUI (F), which have been the MQM’s traditional rivals in urban Sindh, have not focussed on Mr Hussain and left it to the TIP chief to shatter his middle stump. The reasons are obvious: the veterans in the MMA leadership know that in any given situation in the future, especially after the general election, they may need the MQM — possibly as a coalition partner — to keep the PPP out of power. Also, Mr Khan’s meeting with British politicians should surprise no one, because all Pakistani politicians have had no inhibitions about seeking foreign powers’ involvement in our domestic politics. During Mr Bhutto’s rule, opposition leaders went from embassy to embassy seeking foreign help in getting rid of Mr Bhutto, and it is a matter of shame that, when in opposition, PPP and PML-N leaders have gone to Washington to plead with the US government and Congress for an aid cut-off to Pakistan when the other party was in power. The idea was to discredit the political rivals, even if this meant hurting national interests.

Pakistan has a host of problems, and most of them are acute, like the absence of rule of law, inflation, the deteriorating educational standards, and the incompetence of public utilities, besides violence, which seems to have entered every aspect of public life. Whether it is politics or religion or transport, violence is never far from it. Regrettably, the politicians are impervious to this aspect of our national life and have in fact often resorted to force to achieve political ends. While the government’s failure to maintain law and order is obvious, even seasoned politicians attach no importance to the need for combating this trend, which is only adding to the prevailing confusion and uncertainty.

Still time to enrol as voters

THE first step towards holding the polls has been taken. The Election Commission of Pakistan has completed the task of compiling the draft electoral rolls and has set up 45,403 display centres around the country where these lists can be inspected. Until the end of July claims will be entertained, corrections made and the names of missing voters entered to make the electoral rolls as comprehensive and authentic as possible. So far 52.1 million voters have been registered and this number is substantially less than the 71.3 million registered in the last general election in 2002. In Sindh alone there has been a fall of 4.8 million voters. This has naturally evoked strong reactions from the opposition parties which see foul play in the entire exercise of registering voters.

The Election Commission has come out with a number of reasons that account for this shortfall. The main factor cited is that only those voters who have computerised national identity cards (CNIC) have been enrolled. Since not everyone is in possession of the ID cards issued by Nadra, the number of voters has fallen. The Election Commission has also claimed that many people were registered twice on the voters’ rolls and this anomaly has now been eliminated. This may well be true but does not explain fully the unprecedented phenomenon of a decline in the size of the electorate. Nadra claims to have issued 56 million CNICs. This means that many people holding computerised identity cards are not registered as voters for the simple reason that enough efforts were not made to bring everyone to enrol themselves. Hence it is important that the coming few months before the elections be used to register as many eligible voters as possible. This can be done by automatically registering on the electoral rolls all those who are eligible and figure in Nadra’s database. For its part, Nadra should expedite the process of issuing CNICs. The political parties also need to play a role in motivating people to get themselves registered as voters since there is still time for it. The lack of interest shown by the people reflects their apathy and disillusionment with politics. This is something that has to be rectified.

Demystified at last

THE umpire has spoken, declaring at long last the Jamaican police caught at silly point. The final investigation report on Bob Woolmer’s death says that the former Pakistan cricket coach was not murdered after all, but died of natural causes on March 18 in his hotel room in Jamaica. The first whistleblower after the death of Woolmer under ‘suspicious’ circumstances was the person who should have been the last — the Jamaican police deputy commissioner Mark Shields. His misguided volley based on a pathologist’s erroneous report was followed by days of media frenzy, eclipsing the World Cup tournament, and even allegations involving a harassed Pakistan squad stranded on the Caribbean island without their country’s diplomatic presence there. The pain and anguish suffered by Woolmer’s family, who waited for weeks in South Africa to receive his body, was unnecessary; equally unjustified was the distress caused to the Pakistan team as a result of the insensitive handling of the whole affair. The team’s own media manager, P J Mir, did not help matters either by giving the foreign media red herrings on which to chew all through the controversy. The diplomatic assistance the team desperately needed took long in coming.

Cricket fans in Pakistan are finally relieved, if still angry. They and the game could have been saved the entire sordid episode, especially the uncalled for gory details that the media picked up and flashed. Unsubstantiated charges of match-fixing and corruption against cricketers and those associated with the game, including the deceased, flew around like flies. However, straightening out the queered pitch, the Pakistan Cricket Board has with good sense decided not to go after the Jamaican authorities for vilifying the Pakistan squad through investigations that followed the death of the former coach, opting instead to bury the dead, finally. Bob Woolmer will now be remembered for all the good he brought to Pakistan cricket.

A budget full of promises

ANALYSTS are unanimous that the fiscal package for 2007-08 presented by the government is an election year budget. In an election year, governments try to mobilise the maximum of resources and promise the largest number of relief measures particularly to the poor. The government has just tried to do that and in a very complex situation and come up with a number of relief measures – monetary, material and social welfare.

The government has begun with the large electorate of over four million who are in the employment of the federal, provincial and local governments. It has increased their salaries by 15 per cent and pension by 15 to 20 per cent, with higher relief for the more aged. The grades of the low paid employees have been raised including from grade 11 to 14 which is a substantial rise.

It has also decided to allot 250,000 plots of land and apartments for the low-paid employees and 37,000 plots, houses and 8,500 apartments to the underpaid. It is also subsidising the sale of a variety of goods through the utility stores for which a subsidy of Rs13 billion has been earmarked. But one analysis shows that the food subsidy for the nearly 80 million poor of this country will be only two rupees per head per annum.

The government has great faith in the ability of the utility stores to sell essential goods at concessional rates. So it is increasing the number of utility stores from 1,000 to 6,000. But will the government be able to set up 5,000 utility stores, one each in a union council area within 4 months, well before the elections? There are too many complaints against the utility stores, but now the revamped and refurbished stores are supposed to do better. On their success may depend the success of this government.

While the government is privatising major public sector projects, it is going in for the utility stores in a big way and it is increasing the number of items, including medicines, to sell there. Evidently while the government is helping businessmen in every way possible, it has lost faith in the ability of the businessmen to sell goods at fair prices. This is clearly a dichotomy. But the government is in a hurry to deliver goods less expensively at a time of rising prices and rampant profiteering. Now it is the turn of the grass-roots bureaucracy to deliver as the government wants and as the people need and make it a success.

The opposition has rejected the budget saying it offers no relief to the common man and widens the gulf between the rich and the poor. It has also protested that the standing committee of the National Assembly on finance was not consulted before the budget was presented. That has never happened before under the system of close door budgeting practised by the government. If instead we adopt the open budgeting policy of the US there will be few budget surprises and the committee will be fully consulted. There is much to be said in favour of open budgeting instead of the hush-hush budget making and then hasty amendments one after another.

The opposition complains that the budget shields the rich. It is valid to the extent that the capital gains profits have been exempt from taxes and so also the large profits from real estate which should have been taxed if not by the centre, at least by the provinces.

Earlier it was repeatedly emphasised by the rulers that the budget will have no new taxes, but it provides for additional tax revenues of Rs 44.425 billion to raise the total tax revenues next year to Rs1.025 trillion and that includes the one per cent surcharge on imports excluding a number of items such as vegetables. A new withholding tax of 5 per cent has been levied on purchase of locally manufactured cars above 800 CC. Sales tax on 85 raw materials has been increased. Wealth tax reappears in the form that if you earn more than five lakh rupees, you will have to file a statement. Retail price of cigarettes has been increased by 5 per cent. The travel tax has to be paid on air tickets bought abroad now. Additional General Sales tax has been levied to the extent of Rs 23 billion.

Before the budget was presented it was said the subsidies would be to the extent of Rs200 billion but now these are only Rs114 billion. Ten industries have been given concessions. These include textile spinning industry which gets them in the form of interest reduction. But they have to pay Rs4,600 as minimum wage to their workers. Will they pay that in reality and push up the prices of their products which will aggravate the inflation.

Inflation should not abate if it does not come down due to the concessions given to the farmers including the 25 per cent subsidy on power for tubewells. The government has come up with its largest public sector development programme at Rs 520 billion. If the amount is fully utilised it should create a remarkable increase in employment and production.

Dr Salman Shah says the government wants to reduce the debt-GDP ratio to 20 per cent, but that is not to be done soon but in 10 years and at the rate of 2.5 per cent per year. National debt as a ratio of GDP goes down when the economic growth rate is high and the GDP becomes larger.

In the same manner, the tax-GDP ratio has gone down to 9.5 per cent this year from 10.5 per cent because of the larger GDP following higher economic growth. A lower national debt including domestic debt means less revenue spent on debt servicing and more funds available for development.

Similarly inflation is the outcome of higher economic growth. As more and more money is pumped into the economy and the demand for goods and services increases, the prices go up and the State Bank’s tight monetary policy is not able to restrain that inflation as money comes from many other sources including home remittances to the extent of Rs5 billion and foreign direct investment to the extent of Rs6 billion and as untaxed money circulates very fast.

But now the CBR has come up with an instrument to whiten the black money. How well those with the black money respond to the CBR’s gesture remains to be seen. The Rs1.874 trillion budget also promises a new deal to those under 25 of age. Dr. Salman Shah wants to develop them, train them and equip them for the greater task in life as they are 100 million in number and they are the future of the country.

In this connection the four per cent of the GDP to be spent on education will become handy if the money is well spent. Rs29.4 billion has been earmarked for quality education, let us hope it will help raise the standard of the education in spite of many misgivings. Many promises have been made to the youth who outnumber others in the country but they have not become a reality except in small parts.

In this era of globalisation the youth has to acquire the necessary skills and competence to build a better economy and a brighter future for the country. The budget is full of promises and the ministers have added to them. What matters is to what extent they make them a hard reality.

P.S: Of the three Ds of the Pakistan economy – defence, debt servicing and development outlay– the development outlay has the top most priority now followed by debt servicing both domestic and external and defence. The largest claim of Rs520 billion PSDP is for the development followed by debt servicing and defence.

Breaking away

IF Albania is one of the few countries left in the world where George Bush is still treated like a local hero then much of that enthusiasm dates back eight years to the Nato air campaign which rescued the Albanians of Kosovo from Serbian ethnic cleansing and led to the downfall of Slobodan Milosevic.

But enthusiasm for Mr Bush does not travel far in the Balkans. The benefactors of Nato's action, the Kosovo Albanians, are wary of the US president's call for their country to become independent. The only formula on offer is a plan before the UN, which would create a state of "supervised independence", a concept which falls short of the autonomy the Kosovo Albanians are demanding.

The plan, devised by the UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari, is the shrewdest one yet devised to end the simmering conflict. It offers Kosovo a status which is halfway between statehood and a protectorate.

All of the powers of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (Unmik) would be transferred to Kosovan authorities, but someone called an international civilian representative would have powers to correct and annul laws, sack officials and vet appointments, and his deputy would command a large EU mission to bolster the police, prisons, justice system and border guards. There would also be a peacekeeping force.

For the 130,000 Serbs scattered all over Kosovo, the Ahtisaari plan would offer safeguards - five Serb-ruled municipalities, which would have the right to link with each other, the right to get financial help from Serbia, protection for Serbian Orthodox monasteries and additional parliamentary seats. Both the multi-ethnic formula of the new state and its dependence on devolution run counter to Kosovo Albanian wishes. Serbian and Russian objections are even more fundamental. Kosovan independence would strip Serbia of 15 per cent of its territory, including its most sacred historical monuments and sites. It would flout international law and create a dangerous precedent for secessionist causes all over the world.

The problem is that the only real alternative to the UN plan is partition, under which Serbs remaining in Kosovo would lose out even more.

––The Guardian, London