April 04, 2007	Wednesday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 15, 1428

KIEV: Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, the hero of the 2004 “Orange Revolution,” has made what may be the biggest gamble of his political life in ordering the dissolution of parliament.

And it is a gamble that in the end, analysts said, it is likely to benefit only his rivals.

Often criticised as being too soft, the pro-Western Yushchenko showed unexpected firmness on Monday in decreeing the dissolution of parliament live on television.

He accused the pro-Russian coalition government under Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych as “usurping power” and violating the constitution.

Yanukovych’s supporters quickly denounced the president’s move as “anti-constitutional” and refused to carry it out.

Commentators said the dissolution was a desperate move that would likely play into the hands of the president’s rivals, Yanukovych and his former “Orange Revolution” ally Yulia Tymoshenko.

“He yielded to pressure and did what Yulia wanted,” said Mykhailo Pogrebinsky, a political analyst with ties to Yanukovych’s government.

Tymoshenko pushed hardest for the decree dissolving parliament, Pogrebinsky said, and polls show she has the most to gain from a new parliamentary poll.

“I am surprised, I hoped that that it would not go so far. It exceeds any rational logic.” If she returned to her former role as prime minister, Tymoshenko could eclipse the president and become the de facto number one in the country, said Volodymyr Fesenko, an analyst at the Penta think tank.

The crisis marks the latest clash in Ukrainian politics during the two years of bitter wrangling that have followed Yushchenko’s rise to power in January 2005.

The “Orange Forces” led by Tymoshenko and Yushchenko failed to cooperate, paving the way for Yanukovych to become prime minister last August.

The cohabitation of the president, who supports closer ties with the West including NATO membership, and the prime minister, who favours closer ties with Moscow, has become increasingly tense as the as parliament has managed to eat away at Yushchenko’s powers.

The president’s role now resembles the ceremonial role of the British Queen, the weekly magazine Stolychniye Novosti joked, suggesting that his hand was forced in dissolving parliament.

“The president understood that he soon may not be (president) any more,” the paper wrote.

Vadim Karasev, the director of the Institute of Global Strategies in Kiev, echoed the sentiment.

“What other option did the president have? To look on in silence as the pro-Russians seized all of his power?” said Karasev.

Russian daily Kommersant said Yushchenko was not guaranteed the support of his traditional Western allies in the crisis.

“The US and Europe are not elated at the idea of the government of Viktor Yanukovych ... But they clearly recognise there that the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) could put the situation in Ukraine completely out of control.”—AFP