March 17, 2007	Saturday	Safar 27, 1428

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LAHORE, March 16: The Water and Power Development Authority is starting to lobby for a national conservation campaign to save 2,000 megawatts this summer, otherwise the impending shortage could cripple the country’s economy.

According to Wapda sources, the authority’s representatives have been shuttling between different ministries for the past few weeks, in a bid to make everyone realise the magnitude of the impending crisis that could be worse than the last year’s if not checked through a set of legislative and administrative measures.

In terms of time, the sources say, the power deficit could mean daily outages ranging between 2.5 to four hours.

Commenting about the extent of the impending crisis, they said Wapda’s transmission and generation facilities were likely to face extreme pressures. They said that Wapda’s generation capacity would fall short by 2,000MW while its transmission capacity might be reduced by 1,000MW, adding that the shortages in generation capacity could swell well beyond 2000MW, depending on the amount of snow and glacier melt.

Recently, Wapda Chairman Tariq Hamid publicly pleaded for conserving power to overcome the crisis. He has been asking industrialists to stagger weekly holidays to minimise the load on the authority’s system, but without any positive results.

According to the authority’s calculations, it would be faced with a demand for power of more than 17,000MW against its ability to supply 15,000MW. Last year, it had a peak-hour demand of 15,500MW (including the KESC), with a shortage ranging between 1,000MW and 1,200MW. This year, it would be able to increase its system’s production capacity by only 586MW. Of the total, the KESC has added 200MW, the authority has added 384MW – 286MW through rental power and 98MW by the Malakand-III power station.

On the transmission front, Wapda has added 1,000MW to its total capacity but the 1,500MW increase in demand could still leave it with a shortfall of 1,000MW, they said.

This double deficit, they say, can only be met through meticulous planning, which, in turn, can only be executed if the planners realise the existence of the problem and plan accordingly. Various steps being considered include an early closure of markets, night time running of agricultural tube-wells, increasing industrial holidays, early start of work day, five-day work week, banning of extravagant lighting at public and private functions and replacing power-intensive incandescent bulbs with fluorescent energy-savers.

They said that the government could promulgate a law, empowering district governments to regulate the business timings. By closing shops at 9pm, the authority could save some 350MW. It could save more if shops and markets closed their shutters by 8pm. The district set-ups needed legal cover for doing so, they said. Advancing the government office timings could save another 200MW. Banning of lighting at weddings and other social gatherings and illumination of huge billboards could save a massive 400-500MW. Similarly, regulating operation of air-conditioners at government offices could also help save another 150MW. Educating people on energy conservation through media campaigns and regulating tube-wells and home appliances, especially during peak hours, can also save 200MW.

Load growth in government connections has been above the national increase, reflecting the unscrupulous use of air-conditioners. If checked, it could save another 100MW.

These steps, as statistics showed, could greatly mitigate the crisis, said a Wapda official. But, he said, the government should forget about political compulsions of an election year to undertake such an effort. “That is what the authority has been pleading for,” he claimed.

Unfortunately, the government, especially the Ministry of Water and Power, is reluctant to accept the situation. As late as March 13, the minister for water and power had told the president that foreign power producing companies were ready to come to Pakistan and generate 1,200MW by the year-end. “This is completely false statement. No IPPs will come online during the next two years. The country needs a breathing space, which could only come through sensitising public and undertaking conservation measures.”

“A country that is importing oil worth $8 billion and generating 68 per cent of its power with it, should be permanently conserving power, regardless of the current crisis. It is a national duty now given the depth of (the impending) crisis,” he said.