February 04, 2007	Sunday	Muharram 15, 1428

DUBAI: As Iran vies with the United States for dominance in the Middle East, the smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are left with several anxieties -- the consequences of a US-Israeli military attack on Iran; the rising stock of a country that has long posed a religio-ideological threat; and sectarian strife in Sunni-ruled countries with significant Shia communities.

Delivering a policy statement in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- which has a running feud with Iran over the occupation of the Abu Mussa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands -- US undersecretary of state for political affairs Nicholas Burns said his country has always had the stability of the ‘strategic’ region in mind, but Iran has been trying to ‘alter’ it by attempting to dominate.

‘‘The US will not let this happen. We don’t want Iran to dominate the region. The Gulf isn’t a body of water to be controlled by Iran. When challenged, the United States will do everything to defend its interests. We will respond -- economically, financially, politically, and not necessarily just through military means,” Mr Burns said on Jan 23.

Mr Burns’s visit came amid a flurry of diplomatic activity that also included US Defence Secretary Robert Gates’s tour of the region and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s efforts to mobilise the six-member GCC bloc -- comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE -- as well as Egypt and Jordan to join Washington in confronting Tehran.

The Sunni-ruled countries find themselves in a fix with regard to developments in Iran. Looking the other way while Iran develops its nuclear programme would inevitably bolster the country’s military prowess and pose a security threat.

On the other hand, demanding an end to nuclear enrichment places them alongside the US and Israel. With Tehran repeatedly suggesting that it would retaliate by targeting American bases in the Gulf, the GCC countries fear the possibility of a destructive war that could bring to the fore sectarian divisions that have lain dormant.

Bahrain has a majority Shia population, one-third of Kuwaitis are Shia, and Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province has a significant percentage of Shias.

Apart from allegations that its role in Iraq is to maintain instability and keep the US on the defensive, Iran has also been accused of aiding Hezbollah to overthrow the pro-West Fouad Siniora government in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories, thereby extending Tehran’s influence into the heart of Arab crises.

All these developments are compelling the GCC governments to find ways to counter Tehran’s ascendancy.

At a summit in Riyadh in December, the GCC outlined plans for a joint nuclear programme for peaceful purposes. Given the wealth of oil in the region, it is hard to miss that the announcement has political overtones. Further, it raises the possibility of a dangerous proliferation of nuclear technology, even weapons, in the volatile region.

The GCC countries also discouraged the Baker-Hamilton-led Iraq Study Group’s call for the US to hold dialogue with Iran. The concern was that such a move may result in recognising Iran as a key player in Iraq, and forcing a compromise on Iran’s nuclear ambitions -- both ominous to the GCC countries.

After two US aircraft carriers -- Eisenhower and Stennis -- were moved into the Gulf region in recent weeks and Patriot anti-missile batteries deployed, Iran has responded with war games. Further, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric has matched that of US President George Bush.

“They say war is coming. What war? It is all propaganda. Even if they adopt ten other resolutions it will not have any effect,” Mr Ahmadinejad said on Jan 21, referring to the Dec 23 United Nations Security Council Resolution 1737 imposing sanctions on Iran for refusing to suspend uranium enrichment.

In a circulated note, Prof Gary Sick, Middle East expert at the Columbia University, writes that ‘the organising principle of the (US’s) new strategy is confrontation with and containment of Shia influence -- and specifically Iranian influence -- wherever it appears in the region’.

GREATER FEAR: He points to the possibility that ‘the Arab states may subordinate their hostility to Israel, at least temporarily, out of their even greater fear of Iranian dominance of the region’.

Lending weight to this assessment, there have been several reports of meetings between Arab and Israeli leaders recently. Further, Israel’s annual meeting of national security strategists on Jan 25 urged a coalition with moderate Arab countries to deter Iran.

The prevailing tension has triggered a war of words among the region’s Sunnis and Shias.

Accusing Iran of interfering in Iraq’s internal affairs, a prominent Sunni Religious figure based in Qatar has urged Iran to help stop the sectarian strife. He called on Shia leaders worldwide to condemn the killings of Sunnis in Iraq, before sectarian clashes spill over.

“Thousands have been killed in Iraq since the Americans entered the country and Sunnis are the ones suffering most in Iraq. There is an ethnic cleansing going on,” Yousuf Al-Qaradawi said at an Islamic conference in Doha on Jan 20.

In response, Kuwait’s Shia leader Sayed Mohammad Baqer Al-Mahri said, “We affirm that the interest of Islam, bridging the gap between its sects and serving Islamic unity, require dismissing this man (Qaradawi) who is always spreading sectarian rift.”

While the US claims that its Iran-Iraq policies are a reflection of the region’s Sunni governments, many in the region believe that Washington is using the division to its advantage.

“What we are not interested in is another war in the region,” said Mohammed Al-Naqbi of Gulf Negotiations Centre in the UAE. “Iraq is the US’s problem, not the problem of the Arabs. The US destroyed a country that had institutions. It handed that country to Iran. Now it is crying to Europe and the Arabs to help them out of the mess.”

Munir Diar, a Yemeni analyst, recommends a regional plan. “Arabs in this region and Iran must negotiate regional security arrangements far from any American influence or dictates. Iran is a de facto regional power, its role a fait-accompli. The Sunni-Shia split must be done away (with),” he wrote in the UAE’s ‘Gulf News’ on Jan18.—Dawn/The IPS News Service