SOMALIA has witnessed instability bordering on chaos over the past three decades. The writer, who served as ambassador to Ethiopia at the beginning of this period, witnessed the Ogaden war in 1977-78 when Somali forces crossed into the Ogaden region of Ethiopia peopled by Muslim Somalis. The region had become part of Ethiopia during the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie.

Following the coup against the emperor in 1974, a civil war ensued in Ethiopia where the pro-West character of the government changed as the Soviet Union extended its influence to various parts of Africa. In early 1977, Col Mengistu Haile-Mariam, head of the pro-Moscow faction in the armed forces, assumed power in Addis Ababa, but pockets of resistance, some based on local ethnic movements, continued so that instability prevailed in Ethiopia. Gen Siad Barre, who was president of neighbouring Somalia, took advantage of the situation to launch an attack on Ogaden which Somalis believed had been illegally annexed during the emperor’s rule.

The Organisation of African Unity that was headquartered in Addis Ababa had adopted the principle that boundaries established during the colonial period must be respected otherwise there would be chaos in the continent. Eventually, helped by Cuban forces Mengistu was able to drive out the Somalis, but tension persisted as Somalia entered a period of lawlessness after Siad Barre, with warlords from different clans controlling different parts of the country that already had the seeds of discord planted in it when it was divided into British Somaliland in the north and Italian Somaliland in the south during the era of European colonialism. Given its sandy soil and dry climate, the country was extremely poor, its main asset being its strategic location.

The civil war between warlords led to the country becoming a failed state, and Mogadishu, the capital, was virtually destroyed, and no government structure survived. Large numbers of Somalis took refuge in neighbouring lands, notably Kenya. Following the end of the Cold War, the US sent a peacekeeping force, but it suffered heavy casualties, and withdrew with a Pakistani force succeeding it, which was also withdrawn. UN interest declined in what appeared to be a hopeless task. However a failed state, with a Muslim population, that lacked basic resources, could only generate lawlessness and piracy, and Kenya became concerned over the influx of refugees as violence persisted.

The EU took an interest and facilitated negotiations to form a provisional government comprising various factions. But this consisted largely of warlords and was unable to establish its authority. A movement began among the Islamic intelligentsia in the south to establish Islamic courts to dispense justice and to create a structure of law and order. When a large number of local bodies were formed, they established a Union of Islamic Courts that proceeded to replace lawlessness with Sharia-based governance.

The Union of Islamic Courts made rapid progress, and starting from the south occupied Mogadishu last June. In the meantime, the weak provisional government, formerly established in Kenya, shifted northwest of Mogadishu.

At this stage, there were consultations between the US, EU and Ethiopia under which Ethiopian armed forces, well-equipped by the West, were to intervene, on the pretext that elements of the Union of Islamic Courts had intruded Ethiopia and were spreading radical Islamic teachings that were a threat to the state. Prominent leaders of the African Union were also persuaded to join in this concerted effort to strengthen “moderate”, pro-West forces in Somalia and to virtually eliminate the influence of the “Islamists”.

In this well-coordinated plan, Ethiopian forces intervened in Somalia on a mass scale, first occupying the temporary seat of the provisional government, and then swinging southwards in strength to occupy Mogadishu and finally Kismayu.

The forces of the Union of Islamic Courts have been driven to a small enclave in the south, close to the Kenyan border. Kenya has closed the border while US warships have been deployed close to the southwest of Somalia, to prevent any remnants of the Islamists from escaping by sea.

The African Union has defended Ethiopia’s right to intervene, though it has made a routine call for early withdrawal of these forces. The US and EU are supporting the deployment of an African Union peacekeeping force. With pressure mounting for Sudan to accept UN reinforcements for African Union peacekeepers in the Darfur region, the post 9/11 strategy to install “moderate” democratic regimes in Islamic countries is being implemented.

In Somalia, the government being installed consists of warlords from various clans who are corrupt, and have been responsible for the state of anarchy. It is widely acknowledged, even by the western media, that the Union of Islamic Courts had established law and order in the areas it occupied — although it enforced Sharia-based laws.

It is quite clear that western governments want to eliminate the “Islamists” in Somalia, and create a pro-West elite that would be the main beneficiary of aid and investment from the West, but if Iraq and Afghanistan are any guide, the majority of the local people would want to preserve their own culture and faith. Western inspired leaders do not win mass support. However if genuine pro-democracy leaders are helped in setting up modern educational and health facilities and in efforts to raise the level of awareness in the younger generation, that would be acceptable to the people.

One should expect nationalist and Islamic ferment in Somalia, especially because Ethiopia, which is a traditional enemy, has been used to suppress an indigenous movement. One hopes that the western powers as well as the nationalist elite in Africa will realise the need to keep local sensitivities in view. The vast majority of citizens in Muslim countries believe that they are following a faith that stands for moderation and peace. Hence the campaign to equate Islam with violence and terrorism is not only based on false assumptions but is also proving counter-productive.

The experiment in Somalia could initially involve the killing or incarceration of many innocent Muslims. This is bound to create several divisions between pro-West warlords and the common Somali citizens, perhaps leading to a small minority turning to terrorism on the basis that pro-West values were enforced through the massive use of force.

This development should be seen in the context of evolving US strategic plans. Washington first created a reliable ally in the shape of Israel in the Middle East. Following the end of the Cold War, with the Islamic world seen as a successor threat to communism, a partnership was developed with India that is being built up militarily as a strategic ally. The evolving situation in the Horn of Africa shows that Ethiopia, which is dominated by Christian Amharas, and has close links with Israel, is becoming the third pillar of a strategic structure that surrounds the Islamic heartland.

Pakistan, already under pressure over Afghanistan, has to take cognisance of these developments. Its response should be at national, regional and global levels and it must maintain its deterrent strength. Pakistan needs to promote greater solidarity among the countries that come under pressure, support the UN system, and build close relations with key players including China, Iran and Saudi Arabia. The developing scenario in the Horn of Africa involves high stakes and Islamabad needs to follow the unfolding scenario.