Democrats to benefit from Iraq quagmire: Opinion poll
NEW YORK: A new poll has confirmed that widespread dissatisfaction over Iraq could spell the end of the Republican dominance of Congress, with voters saying they expect the Democrats to cut US involvement in Iraq.
The final New York Times/CBS News poll before next Tuesday's midterm elections showed a significant majority of Americans expect Democrats to reduce or end US military involvement in Iraq if they win control of Congress.
By contrast, they believe President George W. Bush's Republicans would maintain or increase troop levels to try to win the war if they maintain power, the Times said in its online edition.
Only 29 per cent of US voters in the Oct 27-31 survey approved of the way Bush is managing the war, matching the nadir of his ratings in a May-June poll.
Nearly 70 per cent said the president did not have a plan to end the war, and 80 per cent said his latest effort to rally public support amounted only to a change in rhetoric, not policy.
But, in the wake of an embarrassing gaffe by former Democratic presidential candidate Senator John Kerry, party leaders cautioned against over-optimism ahead of the November 7 midterm elections.
The Times/CBS poll was taken before the White House jumped aggressively on Kerry's botched joke that made it sound like he was criticizing US troops in Iraq.
Fearing the gaffe could turn voters away, other Democrats distanced themselves from Kerry -- who is not himself running in next week's race -- and pushed him to apologize.
The episode demonstrated how insecure the Democrats feel about their lead in hundreds of Congressional races across the country five days ahead of the vote.
Pundits said Democrats have a chance to wrest control of at least one chamber of the US legislature from ruling Republicans. They need to gain a net 15 seats in the House of Representatives to take control from the Republicans, and a net six seats out of 33 up for grabs to dominate the Senate.
While their national poll does not indicate the outcome of specific district and state races for the House and the Senate, the Times said that 52 per cent of registered voters interviewed said they would vote for Democrats, while only 33 per cent said they planned to support Republicans.
Among independent voters, considered a key to how the vote goes, 50 per cent said they would back Democrats, compared with 23 per cent for Republicans.
While Bush is also not running, his overall approval rating at 34 per cent is believed to reinforce the view that Republicans could be hit with a significant setback on Tuesday.
The Times/CBS poll roughly paralleled the results of a Wall Street Journal/NBC television sounding released Wednesday. In that poll, registered voters favored Democrats 52 per cent to 37 per cent over Republicans.
The poll found 54 per cent of voters saying it had not been worth the human and economic price to remove former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein from power, while 63 per cent said they disapproved of Bush's handling of Iraq.
Still, leading political strategist James Carville warned fellow Democrats Wednesday against popping champagne corks.
“Six days from now, no one will care what ABC News or The Wall Street Journal said. It'll be how many votes you got,” he told US television networks.
In a memo this week, he noted that Iraq may prove to be the Democrats' winning card.
“The Republicans are weakening on many fronts, particularly Iraq. The changes on Iraq are major, with disillusionment greatest in the more Republican districts, which is expanding the playing field in the least competitive districts,” Carville wrote.
“Against all odds, Iraq continues to grow and crowd out all other issues in people's vote,” he said.—Reuters
