WASHINGTON, Oct 8: The US administration may recommend dividing Iraq into three highly autonomous regions under a loose federation as it becomes increasingly difficult for American troops to prevent a civil war in this multi-religious and multi-ethnic country.
An independent commission set up by US Congress with the approval of President George Bush may recommend carving up Iraq into the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish highly autonomous regions, media reports said.
The Iraq Study Group, co-chaired by James Baker, the former US Secretary of State during the first Gulf War in 1991 and Lee H. Hamilton, former congressman and director of the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars, is preparing to report after next month’s congressional elections.
The recommendation to establish a federation in Iraq is also linked to a sharp increase in US war casualties.
In a front page report published on Sunday, The Washington Post said the number of wounded was “a more accurate gauge of the fierceness of fighting” and not the more than 2,700 killed. “Advances in armour and medical care today allow many service members to survive who would have perished in past wars,” the report noted.
The losses in Iraq, and an increasing opposition to the war in the US, are believed to have convinced the Bush administration to look also for non-military options to end the conflict. Mr Baker, 76, an old Bush family friend, said last week that he met the president frequently to discuss “policy and personnel”.
In Washington, Mr Baker is seen as the one man who might be able to break through the tight phalanx of senior officials who advise President Bush on Iraq.
Iraq experts in Washington believe that the bifurcation of Iraq is going to take place, one way or another. If done properly, it can allow the three proposed units to retain a semblance of unity by agreeing to owe allegiance to a federal setup in Baghdad.
If the situation is allowed to deteriorate further, it can lead to a bifurcation of Iraq into three independent states, that too after much bloodshed, the experts warn.
They also point out that the Kurds already effectively have their own zone and would not accept a strong centralised government.
The proposed federation would devolve power and security to the regions, leaving a skeletal national government in Baghdad in charge of foreign affairs, border protection and the distribution of oil revenue.
The Iraqi government will be encouraged to hold a constitutional conference paving the way for greater devolution. Iran and Syria will be urged to back a regional settlement that could be brokered at an international conference.
