LAHORE, Sept 11: Virus and pest attack and recent floods may cost the country over two million bales, apprehend stakeholders. They put the blame squarely on `mismanagement’ by the provincial authorities which failed to ensure on-time sowing in the first place, control seed mafia and then save the crop from incessant virus and pest attack.

They apprehend that the country may not go beyond 11 million bales against the official target of 13.80 million bales. Anything beyond that should be considered a bonus, they said.

According to them, virus has badly damaged the crop in the districts of Multan, Vehari, Lodharan and Khanewal. Vehari is the worst affected where the virus has hit each acre. Then comes Multan where the effect is 70 per cent while attack in Lodharan and Khanewal is 40 per cent each.

In all, around one million acres are hit by the virus. One acre, on an average, produces 1.5 bales. By that calculation, the virus phenomenon may cost around 1.5 million bales.

The recent floods have also hit around 400,000 acres along river banks both in Punjab and Sindh. By the same calculation, another 600,000 bales might have been lost to the floods.

“It has been a case of pure mismanagement by the provincial authorities,” says Mr Ibrahim Mughal of the AgriForum.

The farmers, he said, were forced to delay sowing for lack of water and delayed wheat procurement by the government. As if these two factors were not enough, seed mafia was given free hand to exploit hapless farmers. It sold every kind of fake seed. On top of all, fertiliser prices went beyond small farmers’ reach and subsequently its use dropped.

Consumption of potash fertilizer, according to Mr Mughal, dropped by 70 per cent and phosphate by 31 per cent. “In this situation, it will be a miracle if the total yield goes beyond 12 million bales.”

Mr Liaqat Hayat, an independent analyst, says that sowing was late this season by around 15 days. Normally, sowing starts by May 1, but this season it started by May 15 due to lack of water in the cotton belt and delay in wheat procurement, affecting farmers’ income that goes into cotton sowing.

“This delay alone can reduce one to 1.5 maunds of yield per acre. So, all these factors lead to one simple conclusion — cotton crop may not touch target and fall short by a substantial margin,” he said.

Farooq Bajwa of the Farmers Associates Pakistan (FAP) says if reports about the current crop situation are true, the farmers will be suffering a loss of Rs23 billion.

“The federal and provincial governments must sit together and fix responsibility for this disaster. Water could have been released earlier to the core cotton area while wheat procurement should have been started much before it actually started and seed mafia should have been reined in,” he said.