KATHMANDU: Nepal’s armed Maoist rebels are upping the ante, refusing to honour a recent United Nations-brokered agreement and calling instead for full resolution of overarching political issues ahead of promised disarmament. The latest demand has thrown the proverbial wrench into the fragile peace talks between the rebels and the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) government which began in April after King Gyanendra was forced to recede into the background in the face of popular uprising.

Many observers now see the peace process at an impasse, and the possibility of clashes between the two sides in coming months. “This is a stalemate, but it also could be negotiating tactic,” says Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of the Samay news magazine. “The coming weeks will make things clearer.”

The stalemate has hamstrung a new UN mission to the Nepali peace process. Ian Martin, who heads the mission, arrived only last week after being appointed as UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s personal representative. He is finding it difficult to move the process forward in the face of Maoist and government intransigence, sources close to him say.

Matters have been made more complex by the role of international community which has been urging the government to take a tougher line against the Maoists. Diplomatic sources say India and the United States, which have supported the peace process in the past, are now urging the SPA not to include the Maoists in an interim government unless they are disarmed.

The formation of an interim government is the next step in the peace process, but the governing SPA alliance is not keen to include the Maoists in such an arrangement unless they disarm. Last month’s UN-brokered agreement paved the way for both sides to confine their fighting forces in barracks and camps, a task Martin’s mission is expected to begin soon. But difficulties abound.

Indian officials fear that rebels joining the government without disarming would send the wrong message to the numerous insurgent groups within India, and could destabilize the entire region. “We cannot allow a political party to keep arms,” says a diplomat on condition of anonymity.

But the Maoists see the issue differently. In recent weeks, as government leaders have courted international actors, tried to build ties with the Nepal Army and even proposed a ceremonial role for the king, the Maoists have come to suspect its intention.

“We suspect the government is again joining hands with the regressive forces. They are cultivating the army and continuing with American-provided military training. They are also working with the King. There is reason to believe the government is not serious,” says Maoist chief negotiator Krishna Bahadur Mahara.

To press home the point, the Maoist central committee last week decided to suspend provisions of the UN-brokered agreement that called for cantoning and confining both the government and rebel armies in respective barracks and camps. “We will not confine our Peoples’ Liberation Army until these political issues are sorted out,” Mahara told IPS. “If the government does not agree to our demand, we will lead an urban uprising to press our point.”

The threat of an urban uprising is worrying the government and international donors. Any miscalculation by either side could likely damage the peace process permanently and resume fighting, analysts say.

The snag in the peace process comes nearly a year after the Maoists and SPA, then in opposition, joined hands to force a dictatorial monarch to back down.

That partnership succeeded last April when the king backtracked, but the two sides are now turning against each other. A desperately poor country wedged between India and China, Nepal needs peace and stability to concentrate on its development efforts. Ten years of the Maoist insurgency has already killed more than 13,000 people and countless more have been injured and rendered homeless.

The Maoists’ major demand is to turn Nepal from a monarchy into a republican state. Major SPA partners have their reservations, but would rather wait for an elected constituent assembly to decide the issue permanently. The fight now is whether the country should wait till the election, or declare Nepal a republic in the interim phase before the elections. The rebels are pushing that it be done now, but the government vehemently disagrees.

“There was an understanding that the constituent assembly should decide this issue. We should wait for that,” says Dr Ram Sharan Mahat, finance minister in the SPA government. “They now raise the political issues, whereas the main problem is of arms management.”

The Maoists know that their arms are their main bargaining chip and are in no mood to give it up unless political issues are decided. Some conflict analysts see the point and give credit to the Maoists with sound strategy. “This is a group that has come to the verge of power on the strength of their arms. Why would they give it up now without first winning political concessions,” asks a foreign conflict expert requesting anonymity.

But there is a danger that the rebels could be pushing their luck a little too far, because most people in Nepal and among the donor community do not want to see arms held by a governing political party. And the Maoists want to be a part of the governing alliance, on their own terms.

“Let us discuss the interim constitution, interim government and status of the king in the interim phase,” says Mahara. “Without resolving those issues, how can we trust the government and regressive forces (army and king) who might not agree to a reformist agenda once we leave our arms?”—Dawn/IPS News Service