The killing of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, a political figure and the province-wide protest it sparked, would intensify the feelings of alienation among Balochis, making their entry into the national political mainstream far more difficult. At this point of time, its consequences on the development process in the province are also uncertain.
Politics and economics are deeply inter-related. From the point of view of economics, the present rulers have made serious efforts to develop the neglected province and started mega projects including Gwadar port. These mega projects open up Balochistan for both foreign and domestic investors.
But the Balochi reservations about sharing of benefits of these projects have not been removed. Unfortunately, the rulers have not fared well on political front. The political issues linked to these mega projects remain unresolved.
The three main issues agitating the Balochis are;
(1) setting up of military cantonments in Gwadar, Kohlu and the Bugti tribal area;
(2) the lack of employment opportunities for locals in the ongoing mega projects and
(3) the serious reservations about the entire development process.
When the centre decided to set up military cantonments without taking the local leaders into confidence, many Baloch senators accused the government of launching an unannounced military operation. A parliamentary committee was set up to achieve political reconciliation. The committee contacted Nawab Akbar Bugti and discussed the related issues with him but the recommendations made by it in consultations with Akbar Bugti were not implemented.
Military actions in the past have also created political instability, centre-province disharmony, social chaos and intensified feelings of frustration and alienation among the Baluchis and subsequently retarded the process of economic development in the province.
Nawab Akbar Bugti was a veteran Baloch nationalist leader. The nationalists contend that the real beneficiaries of the on-going mega projects would be the non-locals and aliens.
They base their judgment on historical realities, post-independence policies of discrimination and the development strategies of the decision-makers in Islamabad.
The nationalist interpret the ongoing process of development as the politics of development. This politics, they contend, will continue to keep the people of this province deprived, poor, least developed and most backward.
They contend that uplift programmes reflect the federal government’s plan to settle outsiders in Gwadar and other areas, which, they think, would change the demography of the province.
They contend that the federal government earns Rs84 billion annually from Sui gas fields, but gives the Balochistan government only Rs5 billion under the head of development surcharge and excise royalty.
They claim that in the Saindak copper project, Balochistan’s interest was jeopardized as Chinese share in it was 74 per cent, the federal government held 25 per cent and the province got only one per cent.
Neglect: Undeniably, Balochistan has suffered long years of neglect. The province is mired in poverty. In terms of literacy, higher education, technological development, healthcare, infrastructure development and industrialization, the province is far behind rest of the country.
The grievances of Balochistan include the denial of provincial autonomy as guaranteed by the Constitution, a poor share of royalty on gas and other minerals, economic backwardness and inadequate fiscal disbursement on the basis of geographical areas and under-development.
No military solution to the Balochistan problem would be viable. In the past, the military operations have been ineffective, even counter- productive to solve political problems. In fact one military action, after a pause, has led to another.
Deployment of security forces, establishment of cantonments and military operation are not the suitable strategies to create a stable security environment.
There is need to learn from the past experience. A political reconciliation can help sustain the ongoing development process.
No mega-project will bear fruit in the given state of security and law and order situation in the province. The need of the hour is to create real security environment that will serve long-term objectives associated with the economic development.
What is critical for creating a real security environment is the participation of local stake-holders and fair distribution of development gains.
The real parameters of security vis-à-vis development process are yet to be defined. It is about the stake, cooperation, support and engagement of the populace in the development activities taking place in their area. In broader perspective, security concept covers all areas- from economic, social, political and cultural to environmental.
If all these areas are secure and not vulnerable, the development process, which involves changes, certainly brings a positive change not only on ground but also in social attitudes of the people. In a state of real security one feels economically, socially, politically and culturally secure: security in all its aspects.
The federal government should contact the existing tribal and political figures and take them into confidence about development agenda and ensure their consent and approvals.
Effective measures need to be taken which could allay the sense of alienation, bring nationalists into the mainstream politics, create local stake in the province’s development and assuage their grievances.
A sense of ownership should be created among the local people making them directly responsible for the security of vital installations. New doors to cooperation and prosperity should be opened. Physical force will not work.
On the national scene, a key issue is how to remove province-centre disharmony. It requires removing disparities in incomes between various provinces? The situation has also led to provincial disharmony and differences. It has created regional disparity leading to a north-south divide.
The development schemes in Balochistan also suffer from bad planning and slow implementation. The lack of proper planning and faulty procedural codes have also increased the cost of the Kachchi canal project from Rs31.2 billion to over Rs70 billion. The security problem in Balochistan has delayed the completion of the Rs13 billion Gomal Zam Dam by more than two years. However, at a meeting held last month to review progress of ongoing development projects in Balochistan, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz was told by the provincial chief secretary that Kachhi canal’s phase-I will be competed in 2008.
According to the official estimate, 700,000 acres will be irrigated by the Kachhi canal, which includes 102,000 acres in Dera Bugti. The work on both sides of the canal was continuing to ensure early completion of the project. Prime Minister was informed that Mirani and Sabakzai dams would be completed by the end of this year and June 2007, respectively.
The Balochistan economy is small relative to those of Punjab and Sindh and according to the SPDC report, the growth rates are somewhat misleading on account of low base.
The province appears, at the best, to remain trapped in a low-level equilibrium and at worst regressing further into under-development.
The report raises doubts about the accuracy of 1972 population census of Balochistan where a significant part is nomadic
The regional disparity is actually the outcome of inequitable allocation for development funds among the federating units over a long period of time. According to one estimate, 89 per cent of rural Balochistan and 49 per cent of Sindh’s rural population is in high deprivation areas.
The entire urban population in Balochistan resides in high deprivation districts and the province’s share in low as well as medium deprivation districts is zero. The provincial capital, Quetta does not even qualify for a medium deprivation status.
Over 50 per cent population is subsisting below poverty line in the province. All the districts in the province except Quetta and Ziarat are in the lowest category of high level of deprivation. These districts share 88 percent of the population of Balochistan.
According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2003–2004, urban unemployment is 9.7 per cent in Pakistan, and 12.5 per cent in Balochistan. Between 2001 and 2003, unemployment decreased from 8.3 to 7.7 per cent in Pakistan but went up from 7.8 to 8.2 per cent in the province.
Though Balochistan has been untouched by strong economic growth, its weak economy is likely to be affected by the rising unrest after the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti in recent Kohlu military action.
The severe droughts in recent years and ongoing military operation has also led to internal migration and increased the vulnerability of the poor. The province has the highest percentage of the highly deprived, both in terms of income and other indicators of poverty.
The officials claim that Rs164 billion have been allocated by the federal government for 140 ongoing development projects in Balochistan.
These projects would create more jobs and provide better facilities of life to the people. They also claim that the 30,000 vacancies created for the people of Balochistan in federal and provincial government departments, 23,000 had been filled and recruitment on the remaining posts is under process.
Officials claim that the government has adopted a holistic approach for development of the province. What is however actually needed is to review the present development policy and allocation priorities, which have worsened the disparities in regional incomes and follow it up with political dialogue for reconciliation with the nationalists.
The killing of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, a political figure and the province-wide protest it sparked, would intensify the feelings of alienation among Balochis, making their entry into the national political mainstream far more difficult. At this point of time, its consequences on the development process in the province are also uncertain.
