ISLAMABAD, Aug 3: A no-confidence move planned by the opposition against Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz looms over what is likely to be a hot monsoon session of the National Assembly beginning on Friday after a long recess.

Neither the no-confidence resolution is coming too soon nor there is a chance of its success because of a comfortable ruling coalition majority, but mere a threat of parliamentary trial of the government in this session promises some extra tension while wordy duels are also expected over other the issues that either the opposition or the government plan to bring for debate or legislation.

The ARD had initially planned to move the no-confidence resolution in the beginning of August mainly on the grounds of perceived wrongdoings in the aborted sale of the Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) if the government did not step down by July 31.

But since the MMA also endorsed the second such move in Pakistan’s parliamentary history, opposition sources said the resolution could be delayed until return of MMA’s secretary-general and Leader of Opposition Maulana Fazlur Rehman from a visit to Britain in mid-August, in which case it can get more spotlight for coinciding with the Independence Day.

The first such no-confidence motion was brought in 1989 against the then prime minister Benazir Bhutto but it had failed despite strong forces backing it.

The constitution provides that a resolution for a no-confidence vote against prime minister must be moved by at least 20 per cent members of the house. Voting on the move can be held after three days, but in no case later than seven days, after it has been tabled.

The prime minister ceases to hold office the movement the resolution is passed by a majority of the total membership of the house. Such majority, however, seems unlikely in the present case because the ruling coalition has 201 members against the combined opposition’s 141.

This position remains intact after a patch-up between the government and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, but Mr Aziz would have faced no threat even if the 18 legislators belonging to the MQM had switched sides.

However, the opposition sources claimed that the move would expose fissures within the government and the resolution could even succeed if the ruling coalition did not block its members from voting.

“There are wheels within wheels,” Farhatullah Babar, a spokesman for the People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPP), said about the situation.

The National Assembly, meeting at 10am after a 42-day break following its budget session in June, is likely to discuss ravages of the latest flash floods due to rains in several parts of the country and Israeli military operations against Lebanon and Palestinians during an expected short opening sitting before Friday prayer break.

But fiery debates are expected later on other major developments such as cancellation of the PSM privatisation by the Supreme Court and a controversy over the March 2005 stock market crash.

Also on opposition’s agenda for discussion are continuing power shutdowns in Karachi and other parts of the country, the law and order situation, particularly with reference to the last month’s assassination of Allama Hassan Turabi by a suicide bomber in Karachi, and the July 10 PIA plane crash in Multan that killed 45 people.

Heated debates are also expected on a planned government bill to amend the Hudood laws because the MMA opposes the amendments while non-religious parties like the PPP regard them insufficient.