The Sindh budget

A PROVINCIAL budget is a good indicator of the state of the economy of a province. But more than that, it also points to the policy directions and priorities of the government. In that context, the Rs 193.1 billion Sindh budget for 2006-07 is quite revealing. The bulk of the revenue expenditure of Rs 139.2 billion has been earmarked for administration (Rs 88 billion) and maintenance of law and order (Rs 18.1 billion). Yet the province suffers from weak governance and a high rate of crime and violence. This indicates that more than funds are needed for the government to pull up its socks. If the allocations are indicative of the priorities of the government, the budget presents a mixed picture. Environment, which has been crying for greater attention, should get a boost with one billion rupees having been earmarked under this head for 2006-07. But to the disappointment of sports lovers, recreational services will have to manage with barely one third of what they received in the outgoing year. The orthodox section will be pleased with a hefty rise in allocations for religious affairs from Rs 43.1 million in the current year to Rs 60.8 million for next year. (It was Rs 6.2 million in 2004-05). Mercifully, the social sector’s allocations, especially for education and health, have registered a rise too. But it is a pity that more than half of the Rs 12.7 billion revenue budget for education will go towards funding the administration. The tertiary sector receives a hefty slice of the cake while primary education receives a pittance.

The Sindh ADP of Rs 33.9 billion for 2006-07 is being billed as the largest development programme the province has had. But in the outgoing year the provincial developmental spending overshot the budgeted amount of Rs 24 billion: it was Rs 42.7 billion. In any case, with more funds available, one can expect the spending to go up. But the sectors where cuts have been imposed are disturbing. They are education which will receive Rs 1.5 billion (Rs 4.5 billion in 2005-06), health gets Rs 850 million (Rs 1.6 billion in 2005-06) while housing has been allocated Rs 715 million (Rs 6.5 billion in 2005-06). The government insists that its policies are people friendly but the budgetary allocations do not exactly bear that out.

The province is expected to do better in generating revenues although the taxation base remains quite inelastic. With the total revenue receipts estimated at Rs 147.6 billion for 2006-07, the budget shows a surplus of Rs 8.3 billion. But again the bulk of it will come from the federal government in the form of Sindh’s share in the divisible pool, federal excise duty, sales tax, customs and oil and gas royalty. Sindh’s own receipts are a meagre Rs 22.8 billion. In some areas, the administration failed to collect the revenues budgeted. A notable example was the tax on agricultural incomes which fetched a paltry Rs 300 million in the outgoing year as against the estimated Rs 410 million. The government hopes to raise Rs 450 million next year. While higher incomes allow the government greater flexibility in its policies, it is not tied down by financial constraints. But there is an urgent need to check corruption and ensure that policies are actually implemented. Without this, an otherwise perfect exercise in financial management can prove to be futile.

A hopeful move

A FLICKER of light seems at last visible at the end of the tunnel. On Thursday, Senior Minister Abdul Wasay disclosed in the Balochistan provincial assembly that one of his MMA colleagues had sent a message to Nawab Akbar Bugti in the light of the discussion an MMA delegation recently had with President Pervez Musharraf. “We are awaiting a reply from Nawab Bugti,” he said, adding that hopefully things would improve in Balochistan. Besides being a party in the national mainstream, the MMA is a coalition partner in the provincial government and for that reason must have a stake in peace in Balochistan. Its move now to act as a channel between the federal government and the Jamahoori Watan Party chief could turn out to be seminal if talks between the government and Baloch leaders get underway. Recent events have been disturbing. Contrary to government claims that things are returning to normal, there seems to be an escalation of conflict. Whether or not the insurgents’ claim that they had shot down two gunships is true, the fact that the security forces did use helicopters rebuts the federal government’s claim that it wanted a peaceful solution of the dispute.

The details of the message sent to the JWP chief are not yet known, but one hopes that the two parties will agree to engage in talks in a spirit of conciliation and compromise. For the last two years, the province has witnessed widespread acts of violence and sabotage of vital installations and services. In return, the government has often made use of what appears to be excessive force. This has not helped the cause of peace and normality. What the province needs most is a faster pace of socio-economic development for the betterment of the deprived people there. While Islamabad must explore all avenues for a peaceful solution to the crisis with a view to satisfying the Baloch people’s legitimate demands, those who are resorting to acts of violence and sabotage should pause to think whether this serves the Baloch cause. In fact, such senseless violence and subversion deprives the Baloch people of the sympathies of all right-minded people elsewhere in the country who stand for a better deal for Balochistan.

Killing of policemen

THE irony was unmistakable. Moments after offering fateha in the Sindh Assembly for four policemen who were gunned down on Thursday in a brazen attack in one of the busiest areas in Karachi, the provincial senior minister thought it fit to claim in the house that the law and order situation in the province was improving. The primary target in the ambush was the deputy superintendent of the Karachi Central Prison, Amanullah Khan Niazi, who was pronounced dead on arrival at Civil Hospital. The same day, according to police figures, 81 cell phones and 27 vehicles were stolen or snatched at gunpoint. At least three persons, besides the slain policemen, were found murdered. The targeted assault claimed a fifth victim on Friday when a wounded police officer, Amanullah Niazi’s brother, also succumbed to his injuries. A central figure in the 1983 Sukkur jailbreak incident, Deputy Superintendent Niazi’s career was dogged by controversy. He was named in several criminal cases and his tenure at the Karachi prison witnessed a score of mysterious deaths in custody, the most prominent being those of underworld don Shoaib Khan and Mohammad Hasan Gichki, brother-in-law of former Balochistan Chief Minister Akhtar Mengal. In other words, Niazi had many enemies to worry about.

While high-profile target killings may not come under the head of routine crime, the public murder of a heavily-guarded police officer highlights the growing sense of insecurity felt by residents of Karachi. It is estimated that the city has seen nearly 170 terrorism-related killings in the first five months of 2006, including nearly 50 in the Nishtar Park tragedy, as against 130-odd such deaths in all of last year. Some 19,500 mobile phones were stolen or snatched in the period January-May 2006 — incidents that claimed the lives of many victims — compared to roughly 16,600 in the preceding five months of 2005. All this belies the minister’s loud claim about the crime situation.

Need for reconciliation in Waziristan

TWO meetings on the situation in the tribal areas, with particular reference to the conflict in Waziristan, were recently held in Islamabad and Peshawar, and attended by senior government officials. The Islamabad meeting was presided over by President Musharraf and attended by the prime minister, the governor and chief minister of the NWFP, federal ministers and other officials. However, parliamentarians representing the concerned areas were absent.

The Islamabad gathering was different from earlier meetings on the issue. Imtiaz Ahmad Sahibzada, a former NWFP chief secretary with extensive knowledge about the tribal areas, presented a detailed report on the conflict in the region, and, keeping both historical and contemporary perspectives in view, made sound recommendations for revitalising and strengthening the administrative, political and economic structures in the tribal areas.

It was also announced that the government would spend about Rs 40 billion in the next five years on the development of the tribal belt. It is unfortunate that media reports were generally restricted to what General Musharraf said in the meeting, and which was basically a repetition of his carrot and stick approach that has not worked so far. It seems that the government has no fresh ideas about how to defuse the situation or is unwilling to launch any new initiative. In this context, Imtiaz Sahibzada’s elaborate report should have been made public.

The Peshawar meeting was attended by the NWFP governor, the chief minister, the Peshawar corps commander and the inspector-general of the Frontier Corps. While the presence of the chief minister, Akram Durrani, who had been kept out of deliberations so far, was welcome as he belongs to an area adjacent to Waziristan and has considerable influence there, the presence of the corps commander and the IG, Frontier Corps, would not have been perceived kindly by the tribesmen. The latter want an approach based on dialogue and consultation and not military operation.

According to the official announcement, their presence was intended to remove “weakness in the decision-making process.” Unfortunately this line of argument betrays the unchanging mind-set of the policymakers.

The outcome of the Peshawar meeting was the formation of a grand jirga comprising notables from all tribal agencies tasked with initiating a dialogue with the militants.

A welcome development has been the change of governor in the NWFP. The previous incumbent had no experience of handling matters relating to the tribal areas. The new incumbent, Ali Muhammad Jan Orakzai, is not only a blue-blooded tribesman, but has vast experience in the field. As corps commander, Peshawar, for two years, he enjoyed the confidence of the tribesmen who saw considerable developmental activity in their areas during the period.

Although any new initiative meant to bring peace to the troubled area would be welcomed, the meetings in Islamabad and Peshawar do not inspire much optimism as there was nothing new in official announcements. The stress on the allocation of large sums of funds for developing the area is nothing new. The government had done the same in the past but with few results to show for it.

The point that is not being understood is that the solution to the conflict in these areas cannot be found in the construction of a few roads or the inauguration of the odd dispensary. It is a profound crisis of confidence that prevails in the tribal areas. In the current situation, the very foundation of the relationship between the government and the people is at stake.

A few pertinent questions must be asked: is the government prepared to honour and respect tribal traditions or is it determined to impose its own code of conduct on the tribal people? Will the government honour previous commitments to the people there and ignore foreign pressure to do otherwise? In the tribal areas, one’s word of honour is sacrosanct and has to be fulfilled even at the cost of one’s life. The tribesmen live by this code in their individual and collective lives and expect others to honour and respect it when dealing with them

Unfortunately, this basic ingredient has been missing from the policy which the government wants to follow in Waziristan. Oscillation, expediency and distrust of the tribesmen have characterised all government policies. Many agreements have been signed between the parties and numerous jirgas have been held but the relationship has not stabilised because of the distrust that exists. Repeated denials of events such as missile attacks by American drones and helicopters killing innocent tribesmen, events witnessed by scores of local people, has completely eroded the government’s credibility.

The tribesmen believe that they are being subjected to bombardment and missile attacks on the behest and prompting of the Americans while the government is of the view that the tribesmen are harbouring foreign militants and are launching attacks across the border into Afghanistan despite their promise of good conduct. All this would not have happened if there was a relationship of trust between the parties.

The sidelining of the political administration, relying only on loyal tribal maliks and elders and the resort to force instead of negotiations are other factors that have complicated matters. Moreover, the number of people who have been killed — both soldiers and tribesmen — over the past three years has caused the situation to deteriorate further. It will take enormous goodwill and sincerity on both sides to heal the wounds.

Fata tribesmen are generally simple, intensely patriotic and trusting people. But once their trust is betrayed, it is very difficult to restore it. They can be good friends but formidable enemies. A vendetta once started can go on for generations.

What, then, is the way forward? While some initiatives taken by the government are steps in the right direction, they will produce results only if these are implemented expeditiously and without any reservation. The new NWFP governor must be given a free hand to deal with the situation. No one from Islamabad should breathe down his neck. Judging by his past record, he seems to possess the qualities which the tribesmen wish to see in those who govern them.

On his part the governor has to ensure that political officers, particularly the political agents, are persons of impeccable honesty, integrity, vast experience and in whom he has complete and total confidence. He has to give them the freedom of action and show unqualified support for their decisions. As the governor will be required to show results commensurate with the overall policy of the government he will expect his field officers to deliver.

The governor should immediately start a sincere and genuine process of reconciliation. The chief minister and the provincial government should be fully on board when decisions about the tribal areas are taken. (I have my reservations about a separate administration and secretariat for the tribal areas. This would lead to further fragmentation of the province when efforts should be directed at integrating the tribal areas with the rest of the province.) The use of words such as ‘terrorists’, ‘misguided persons’ and ‘foreign agents’ should be avoided till such time that the reconciliation process is in progress.

To give a fair chance to the new governor and his revamped political administration, the government should announce a ceasefire, a gradual withdrawal of the regular forces from the area depending on the improvement in the security situation and the expeditious payment of compensation for losses. Involvement of the genuine representatives of the tribesmen is a sine qua non for defusing the situation.

A little digression is needed here. Our support to the American war on terror should not be open-ended and unqualified. We may support this venture to the extent that it does not bring instability and alienation within the country and does not compromise our independence and sovereignty. In fact, if considered objectively and dispassionately, we may come to the conclusion that the instability within the country and the increase in terrorist activity is because of our unqualified and unstinted support to this US-led war.

I have no doubt that the Sahibzada report has noted all the mistakes and shortcomings that have resulted in the current situation, and has suggested practical solutions. It is now for the government to implement these with sincerity and determination.

The history of our country tells us that too much reliance on the government’s wisdom has not always produced the desired results. In fact, in some cases, it has resulted in disastrous consequences for the nation, like the tragedy of East Pakistan. The government cannot afford to lose any more time, and instead of falling back on its own ideas (that have so far failed) on managing the conflict in the tribal areas, should be ready to debate and implement proposals from those who want genuine peace and have a deeper understanding of the restive areas.