A tale of two polls
By S. M. Naseem
THE gloom that has been hanging over the nation for the past five years is showing some signs of being dispelled. Amid the debate about the legal niceties of providing the current military regime with an opportunity to continue in office for another extended period, it is good to see that some changes in the direction of national life are beginning to capture the national consciousness.
The dominant national discourse remains focused on elections. With the government’s intention of holding elections in 2007 and the acceptance of this challenge, in the form of a charter of democracy, by the opposition, the final battle lines seem to have been drawn. But before the games begin, a level playing field has to be prepared and a neutral umpire needs to be chosen. The advantage of incumbency, particularly when it is reinforced with the donning of the uniform of the most powerful institution in the country, needs to be offset by assigning the administrative responsibility of holding the elections to an independent, neutral and consensual body.
Merely the appointment of an election commissioner and an interim caretaker government will not ensure the political atmosphere necessary for holding free and fair polls.
In this context, the election of the president by the existing electoral college would be patently mala fide, even if it can be held legally tenable by some convoluted interpretation of the Constitution, which has been deliberately disfigured by the present regime for the sole purpose of extending its tenure. In fact, what would be necessary under the circumstances is the appointment of a caretaker president rather than a caretaker cabinet to run the government before the election.
The current president can run for the presidency, after elections to the federal and provincial legislatures have taken place. Given that the president and his political supporters have often claimed a popularity rating of over 90 per cent, his election as president should presumably be a cakewalk. The small matter of his wearing or discarding his uniform, as well as the legal bar on contesting a public office before two years have lapsed, should be overcome by the overwhelming mandate he expects to receive.
The current regime has shown no inclination to create conditions for a peaceful transition to a democratic polity and seems bent to perpetuate its rule, without caring for the rules of fair play. It seems to be in a strident mood and solely focused on reinstalling itself after the end of its artificially-derived tenure, unconcerned about the larger consequences for the nation’s polity, economy and integrity.
Although it is under pressure from the US and other western countries to give the electoral process a semblance of fairness, it is unlikely that it will ever agree to make more than cosmetic concessions on this score or refrain from manipulating the administrative machinery and state power in favour of its candidates. If the government remains as negative and intransigent as it has been so far about entering into a meaningful dialogue with the opposition parties and making significant concessions, it risks facing a mass uprising such as the one that occurred in Nepal recently.
Indeed, the government’s reluctance to accept these pre-conditions negate its tall claims about its legitimacy, popularity and the economic prosperity which is visible only in the contrived statistics in official documents that are unabashedly pedalled by its spokesmen.
The basis for a less spectacular but more effective solution can be found in the Bangladesh example. When military dictator General Hussain Mohammad Ershad was forced to resign in 1990, following massive protests, state power was handed over to a respected Supreme Court judge, Shahabuddin Ahmed, who headed a caretaker government with the help of technocrats and civil society representatives, with a view to creating conducive conditions for holding elections and for establishing benchmarks for the country’s political and economic governance.
This solution can only come about if the military junta realises, as our former ambassador to the US, General Jehangir Karamat, does, that it would be in the military’s as well as the country’s best interest to stage a retreat from the political arena. While it is idle to speculate on debates within the military, if any, on the subject, it is unlikely that it would be prepared to easily wean itself away from the perks, privilege and power which an extended period of supremacy over civilian governments has bestowed on it.
While there is considerable uncertainty about the timing and the modalities of the next national elections, it is strange that next month’s elections in Azad Kashmir are hardly a subject of debate, although there really seems to be no justification for holding them, while the major problem of the state — the rehabilitation of refugees and the reconstruction of houses — remains largely unattended to. Elections are no substitute for a concerted, people-centred effort for rehabilitation of displaced persons and reconstruction in the devastated land.
There is no guarantee that in the current disturbed conditions of Kashmir, free and fair elections would ensure the participation of the earthquake-affected people who are openly showing their disgust at the prospect while dead bodies continue to be retrieved from the rubble. It is like inviting a bereaved family to a grand feast. The government abruptly ended its relief programme at the end of March in order to force the internally displaced population to return to their home to cast their votes.
If the government was really keen to ensure the participation of the earthquake-affected people in the reconstruction of their homes and rebuilding of their societies, it would have adopted a more grassroots approach. The one at present is very bureaucratised and centred on the influential sections of the population. The latter seem to have benefited most from the government’s ill-conceived compensation schemes. Much of the funding received from generous donors at home and abroad is being deployed for non-earthquake reconstruction activities and the army is being paid for services which should be a normal part of its duties.
The only rationale for the Azad Kashmir elections seems to be to provide the regime some dubious political advantage in its ongoing negotiations with India over Kashmir. By holding these elections, which are overseen by the GHQ in Rawalpindi, the regime is not doing much better than India during elections in the part of Kashmir it controls. The international support for Pakistan on Kashmir is also evaporating in the wake of the war against terror and India’s recent strategic compact with the United States. Even China is less unequivocal in its support on the issue, in view of regional political realities.
The best way to solve the Kashmir issue is to broaden the scope of our relationship with India on the basis of a long-term friendship treaty. As far as the future of the people of Kashmir is concerned it would depend on the way the two countries develop their respective parts in the next decade or so. In the last six decades, Pakistan has done little to develop its part of Kashmir, which is evidenced by the high rate of migration from these areas. The earthquake reconstruction effort, if imaginatively conceived and executed, can provide the basis for building a fair, equitable and prosperous society.
Elections in Kashmir will hardly help in realising this opportunity and will be tantamount to wasting valuable human and financial resources. It would be much better to postpone these elections for a year during which all efforts should be centred on reconstruction efforts, involving a bottom-up approach.
sm_naseem@hotmail.comss

