OTTAWA: A narrow government victory on extending the mandate of Canadian troops in Afghanistan has strengthened the image of rookie Prime Minister Stephen Harper, and highlighted divisions in the opposition Liberals.
But the policy brings risks as well, and the mood could quickly worsen if Canada’s Afghan venture starts going sour.
“He’s got focus and discipline, and he looks like a decisive leader,” University of Manitoba political scientist Paul Thomas said of recent Parliamentary vote to keep Canadian troops in Afghanistan for an extra two years.
Harper’s Conservatives have only a minority of seats in Parliament, and the government’s victory came with the help of votes from two dozen Liberal members of Parliament, including party leader Bill Graham.
It was the Liberals who sent Canadian forces to Afghanistan in the first place, promising that Canada would play a role in the international “war on terror.”
But most of the party’s 102 members of Parliament voted against the motion, giving Harper an narrow victory of only 149 to 145.
Harper, who won power in a Jan 23 election has already proved more focused than his interested-in-everything predecessor, Liberal Paul Martin. He has begun checking off a short-list of priorities, and has dealt swiftly with issues like Afghanistan.
“He’s benefiting greatly in style,” said pollster Michael Marzolini. “The Martin government was indecisive and waffling... Harper is seen to be principled, whether or not you agree with what he is doing.”
Harper’s decision to call a vote on the Afghan mission was a sudden one, and the prime minister confessed on Wednesday that he had feared the vote might fail.
A “no” vote would not have brought the government down, but the “yes” gave Harper political cover — an important prize. If casualties mount and public support dives, he can say that the Liberals sent the troops to Afghanistan, and Parliament wanted to keep them there.
But Daniel Drache, political scientist at Toronto’s York University, said the vote was still dangerous politically.
“Canadians are deeply divided. Where is this thing headed?” he asked. “Casualties do not make good politics, that’s pretty clear.”
Canada has some 2,300 troops in Afghanistan, and 16 solders and one diplomat have already died in the country, most of them since Canada switched operations from the relative safety of Kabul to the more volatile Kandahar in the south.
The most recent death was on Wednesday, just hours before the vote.
Ekos pollster Paul Adams said support for the mission had slipped, but backing remained substantial and what support there was was now harder, and less likely to disappear.
He said Harper had helped establish an image of someone prepared to take tough decisions when he visited Afghanistan shortly after his election.
His aim, he said, was to change Canadians’ image of Canada itself, “that Canada can be a leader and not just a follower and not just a nice guy in the middle...as something other than the mediator and the peacekeeper.”
Harper’s big medium-term goal is to win a majority at the next election, which come within the next 18 months. To do that he is looking increasingly to Quebec, which ironically gives the least support to military involvement.—Reuters
