KATHMANDU: The Himalayan kingdom of Nepal stepped back from the abyss this week, when its stubborn and autocratic king finally bowed to weeks of street protests and handed power back to political parties.
But the challenges are only just beginning for one of the world’s poorest countries as it tries to build a new road towards peace and bring an end to a decade-long Maoist insurgency.
“It was a remarkable climbdown by the king, and overall we must be happy with this,” said Rhoderick Chalmers of the International Crisis Group think-tank. “But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be looking at the various problems which need to be addressed.”
The biggest problem is undoubtedly the insurgency, and how to bring Maoist rebels, who control vast swathes of the countryside, back into the political mainstream.
The rebels are demanding elections for an assembly to write a new constitution — something the political parties promised when they entered a loose alliance with the guerrillas to end royal rule last year.
The parties have vowed to honour that promise by calling constituent assembly elections as soon as parliament reconvenes on Friday. They also plan to offer the Maoists a ceasefire. If accepted, it would be a major step forward.
On the face of it, the Maoists hardly seem in the mood to trust them, denouncing the king’s climbdown as “a sham” and accusing the parties of making “another historic mistake”.
The rebels initially clamped a blockade on Kathmandu and other district capitals, but later suspended it until Friday — on condition that parliament call elections for an unconditional constituent assembly.
Their strongly worded statement on Tuesday raised some diplomats’ hackles, and is sure to have rung alarm bells in Washington, whose ambassador refers to the Maoists as terrorists who simply cannot be trusted.
But other observers say there was as much bluster and posturing in the Maoists’ statement as genuine anger.
“It was a warning to the parties not to forget promises they made, and it was also designed to ensure the (Maoist) rank and file don’t rebel over this,” said Kunda Dixit of the widely read Nepali Times.
Chalmers and Dixit say the parties and the Maoists both seem serious about their roadmap towards peace, which also calls for the rebels to play a role in an interim government before elections for the planned assembly.
But that roadmap remains sketchy, with many questions still unanswered — not least when and how the rebels will surrender their weapons.
Fundamental questions remain too over the terms under which the constituent assembly would work. The Maoists are demanding the assembly come without preconditions, in other words have the power to strip the king of his title and declare a republic.
But would the king agree to an assembly on those terms? Hardly likely, analysts say. The Supreme Court, packed with royal appointees, might also object, especially since the law allows no room to change the main pillars of the constitution — pillars which include the constitutional monarchy.
Nor will the king readily surrender his strongest card, control of the Royal Nepalese Army, which remains loyal.
“I am sure there will be some attempts at clawback by the king, once things start to calm down,” said one diplomat.
In a sense, all three of the main players in Nepalese politics face some of their toughest tests ever.—Reuters
