April 19, 2006	Wednesday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 20, 1427

KARACHI, April 18: Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) -— the mover and shaker of the stock market — would come up with its three-quarter results (July-Mar 2005-06) on Wednesday.

Much of the drop of 128 points in KSE-100 index on Tuesday had to do with the results expectations and rumours regarding possible payout by the market heavyweight. POL or “PAKO” as the scrip is widely termed has been in the forefront in recent months not because of its extraordinary weightage in the composition of KSE index but on speculations about its ‘fair value’. The popularity of the stock with the bulls has been fuelled by the rising international oil prices and ‘expected’ huge discoveries of oil and gas in Tal Block.

The share in POL has climbed by exactly Rs100 in a month since March 20, from Rs595 to Rs695 on April 18. This represents growth of 17 per cent in 19 trading sessions. The stock has outperformed the market by five percentage points, the latter reflecting month-on-month rise of 12 per cent.

On Tuesday, almost all major stock brokerage houses released their reports on expectations regarding the POL results. The forecasts were not in wide variations, all predicting huge growth in earnings. Analysts at InvestCap forecast profit after tax (PAT) at Rs4.67 billion (earning per share: Rs35.5) during nine months of FY06, which was 92 per cent higher than PAT at Rs2.4 billion (eps: Rs18.27) posted by the company in the same period last year.

Taurus Securities’ prediction of earnings almost matched with those of InvestCap. For nine months of FY06, analysts thought that a 92 per cent jump in PAT to Rs4.59bn (eps: Rs34.95) could be witnessed. The brokerage forecast net revenues at Rs10.96bn, a surge of 84 per cent year-on-year.

Analysts at JS Capital Markets Limited are looking at the PAT to reach Rs4.65 to Rs4.70 billion, with eps of Rs35.4 to Rs35.8 which would represent the bottom line growth of 94-96 per cent. The consensus view was that the growth in earnings would be on the back of higher international oil prices and company’s increased oil and gas production.

POL has already announced an interim dividend at Rs7.50 per share with the half year results. The rumour that has been doing the rounds in the stock market is regarding the possibility of the board deciding to distribute a bonus (at 10 per cent) along with the results on Wednesday. Although the analysts agreed that the company had the potential of making a payout, historically, POL has never announced a dividend (cash or bonus) with the nine-month results.