ATHENS: Turkey is on collision course with the European Union over a refusal to open its ports and airports to Cypriot traffic, in a high-stakes dispute that threatens set back a Cyprus solution and relations with Greece.
The EU is due in October to publish a progress report on entry negotiations with Ankara. It could recommend suspending the talks, a year after they began, if Turkey does not comply with Brussels’ demands on access to the ports and airports.
If Ankara’s drive to enter the EU is derailed, it would risk entrenching the Cyprus division and cool Turkey’s fragile relations with Greece, diplomats and analysts say.
“If Turkey’s EU negotiations are suspended, we are likely to see Turkey going away and sulking for 2-3 years,” a Western diplomat in Nicosia said.
“Cypriots are in a very strong position right now but they must play their cards right. The status quo is not good.”
Divided since a 1974 Turkish invasion, Cyprus has evaded all UN-sponsored efforts to re-unite in a federation and has been the major hurdle in Ankara’s hopes of joining the 25-state bloc.
Greek Cypriots, running the only internationally recognised government on the Mediterranean island, rejected a United Nations peace plan in a referendum in 2004, days before joining the EU. The isolated, poorer Turkish Cypriots approved it.
Turkey opened EU accession talks last October and must expand a customs union agreement to new EU members, including opening up to Cypriot traffic. But it has refused so far, demanding easing restrictions for Turkish Cypriots in exchange.
“There will be a clash but Turkey is not the only one to blame. It got promises from the EU and the Turkish government cannot make a U-turn because of public opinion. Politically, they cannot sell it,” said Mehmet Ali Birand, a commentator for the Turkish daily Posta.
Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos, whose government has threatened to veto Turkey if it does not comply, seems to relish having the upper hand. Greek Cypriots have long felt at the mercy of Ankara, which has 35,000 troops in north Cyprus.
“Turkey has an obligation and we have a right. Whether we exercise (the veto) will depend on the conditions at the time,” Papadopoulos told Reuters in a recent interview.
Analysts say others in the EU are not keen to see the large Muslim state join soon, and may also push for a delay.
“My feeling is that countries such as France, Germany and Austria are playing behind the scenes, encouraging Greek Cypriots to prolong the negotiations,” Birand said.
In Cyprus’s diplomatic conundrum, where even the slightest move by the three main players can prompt miracles or disasters, any progress on the ground may have a positive effect on EU-Turkish relations, analysts say.
The ball is in Papadopoulos’s court but after campaigning for a “No” in the referendum he has made no conciliatory moves.
“That was the mistake last time, that the plan didn’t have the political signatures of both sides. Next time they must both campaign for a “Yes”,” an EU diplomat said.
Few see any major steps being taken soon, partly due to parliamentary elections in Cyprus in May, when political parties are expected to take a more nationalist line.
The only moves expected in the next few months are related to an agreement to set up joint technical committees to handle issues ranging from illegal immigration to food safety.
“This may bring things forward enough between the two communities to put pressure on Turkey to comply on ports and airports,” said Thanos Veremis, of the Athens-based ELIAMEP think tank.
“If does not, it only takes one EU country to seize the opportunity to stop Turkey’s negotiations. And this is not good for Greece, either, because it will lose its single leverage over Turkey.”
Apart from Cyprus, Athens and Ankara have been at odds over territorial and human rights issues.
Some analysts caution that Turkey, whose pro-EU government faces elections in 2007, may decide in the end that the EU effort is not worth it.—Reuters
